2003 · Week 5
Final / OT
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
TB -4.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.043
- 46.3%Success rate41.6%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.3%
- 42.2%Third-down rate35.7%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 2.34Points / drive1.38
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.3 points. TB are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 34/47 | 386 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 2 |
| James Mungro | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 26/39 | 318 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 16 | 106 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.91