2021 · Week 12
Final
Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
53
Model margin
-1.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.143EPA / play+0.060
- 49.9%Success rate44.6%
- +0.197EPA / dropback+0.055
- +0.024EPA / rush+0.065
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.50CPOE-2.41
- 48.0%Third-down rate41.9%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.51Points / drive2.35
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.3 points. IND are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/34 | 226 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 17 | 100 | 5.9 | 3 |
| Ronald Jones | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 9 | 123 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 7 | 8 | 31 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 27/44 | 306 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 16 | 83 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Doyle | 6 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 62 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.51