2021 · Week 12

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

38·31

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

53

Model margin

-1.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapColts
  • +0.143EPA / play+0.060
  • 49.9%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback+0.055
  • +0.024EPA / rush+0.065
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.50CPOE-2.41
  • 48.0%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 2.51Points / drive2.35
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 55.3 points. IND are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W12TB @ IND20–27IND
2019 · W14IND @ TB35–38TB
2015 · W12TB @ IND12–25IND
2011 · W4IND @ TB17–24TB
2007 · W5TB @ IND14–33IND
2003 · W5IND @ TB38–35IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–IND
TBQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
INDQ1 14:0534Field goal0–3
TBQ1 12:31736Turnover0–3
INDQ1 10:1734Punt0–3
TBQ1 8:5336Punt0–3
INDQ1 6:4032Punt0–3
TBQ1 5:0734Punt0–3
INDQ1 3:2429Turnover0–3
TBQ1 2:34834Touchdown7–3
INDQ2 13:22375Touchdown7–10
TBQ2 11:44311Turnover7–10
INDQ2 10:501066Touchdown7–17
TBQ2 5:07884Touchdown14–17
INDQ2 1:561475Touchdown14–24
TBQ2 0:1800End of half14–24
INDQ3 15:00843Turnover14–24
TBQ3 10:58728Touchdown21–24
INDQ3 8:06729Turnover21–24
TBQ3 5:22856Touchdown28–24
INDQ3 1:06410Punt28–24
TBQ4 14:0834Punt28–24
TBQ4 12:28513Field goal31–24
INDQ4 10:061075Touchdown31–31
TBQ4 3:29880Touchdown38–31
INDQ4 0:2020Turnover38–31

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3422611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette171005.93
Ronald Jones7375.31
Chris Godwin Jr.133.00
Tom Brady221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski791230
Leonard Fournette78311
Chris Godwin Jr.45240
Cameron Brate34230
Mike Evans36160
Tyler Johnson1190
Scott Miller0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz27/4430632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor16835.21
Carson Wentz3217.00
Nyheim Hines133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jack Doyle67811
Ashton Dulin11621
Michael Pittman410530
T.Y. Hilton45281
Nyheim Hines34260
Kylen Granson22220
Jonathan Taylor45140
Zach Pascal27120
Mo Alie-Cox1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.0%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.51