Closing spread
JAX -2
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play-0.051
- 46.4%Success rate41.8%
- +0.113EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.254
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.1%
- -0.01CPOE-3.08
- 47.3%Third-down rate33.9%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.77Points / drive1.59
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 36 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/35 | 246 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 25 | 56 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 13 | 118 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 7 | 10 | 45 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 23/38 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Denard Robinson | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Thomas | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Denard Robinson | 8 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.04