2015 · Week 15

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

23·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

JAX -2

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.000EPA / play-0.051
  • 46.4%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.113EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.254
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -0.01CPOE-3.08
  • 47.3%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.59
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 36 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4ATL @ JAX7–23JAX
2021 · W12ATL @ JAX21–14ATL
2019 · W16JAX @ ATL12–24ATL
2011 · W15JAX @ ATL14–41ATL
2007 · W2ATL @ JAX7–13JAX
2003 · W17JAX @ ATL14–21ATL
1999 · W9JAX @ ATL30–7JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–JAX
ATLQ1 15:00980Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 10:4831Punt7–0
ATLQ1 9:5247Punt7–0
JAXQ1 8:33730Punt7–0
ATLQ1 4:0136Punt7–0
JAXQ1 2:28868Field goal7–3
ATLQ2 14:05724Punt7–3
JAXQ2 11:00423Punt7–3
ATLQ2 9:281181Touchdown14–3
JAXQ2 3:4731Punt14–3
ATLQ2 2:4430Punt14–3
JAXQ2 1:42887Turnover17–3
ATLQ2 0:0200Field goal17–3
JAXQ3 15:001077Touchdown17–10
ATLQ3 10:40318Turnover17–10
JAXQ3 9:45639Touchdown17–17
ATLQ3 6:151237Punt17–17
JAXQ4 15:003-5Punt17–17
ATLQ4 13:24716Field goal20–17
JAXQ4 10:28319Punt20–17
ATLQ4 8:261461Field goal23–17
JAXQ4 1:42630Turnover on downs23–17
ATLQ4 0:4800End of half23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3524611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman25562.21
Tevin Coleman4235.80
Eric Weems144.00
Matt Ryan300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9131181
Roddy White34470
Devonta Freeman710450
Justin Hardy35360
Jacob Tamme0100
Tony Moeaki0100
Levine Toilolo0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles23/3829711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Bortles6447.31
Denard Robinson14412.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julius Thomas69790
Allen Robinson35571
Denard Robinson810460
Marqise Lee22460
Allen Hurns25440
Marcedes Lewis13260
Rashad Greene13-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.04