Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.032
- 41.5%Success rate43.1%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.192
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.1%
- -3.52CPOE+1.62
- 40.2%Third-down rate38.5%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.58Points / drive1.84
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 36 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 19/31 | 191 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 14 | 105 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 6 | 6 | 95 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Drake London | 3 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/30 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 20 | 55 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 12 | 84 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 7 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2 | 2 | 38 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.30