2023 · Week 4

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

7·23

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

Wembley Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.032
  • 41.5%Success rate43.1%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.171EPA / rush-0.192
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -3.52CPOE+1.62
  • 40.2%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.84
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 36 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W12ATL @ JAX21–14ATL
2019 · W16JAX @ ATL12–24ATL
2015 · W15ATL @ JAX23–17ATL
2011 · W15JAX @ ATL14–41ATL
2007 · W2ATL @ JAX7–13JAX
2003 · W17JAX @ ATL14–21ATL
1999 · W9JAX @ ATL30–7JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00618Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:2539Punt0–0
JAXQ1 9:33872Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 5:443-4Punt0–7
JAXQ1 3:23756Field goal0–10
ATLQ2 14:5166Punt0–10
JAXQ2 11:5739Punt0–10
ATLQ2 10:08942Opp touchdown0–17
ATLQ2 4:3110Turnover0–17
JAXQ2 4:2044Turnover on downs0–17
ATLQ2 2:20624Punt0–17
JAXQ2 0:58515End of half0–17
ATLQ3 15:00875Touchdown7–17
JAXQ3 11:38721Punt7–17
ATLQ3 7:24947Punt7–17
JAXQ3 2:571375Field goal7–20
ATLQ4 10:361069Turnover on downs7–20
JAXQ4 6:011034Field goal7–23
ATLQ4 1:56319Turnover7–23
JAXQ4 1:2800End of half7–23

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder19/3119112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson141057.50
Tyler Allgeier7162.30
Desmond Ridder166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonnu Smith66950
Bijan Robinson55320
Drake London37281
Kyle Pitts24210
KhaDarel Hodge22190
MyCole Pruitt0100
Mack Hollins0300
Tyler Allgeier12-40

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence23/3020710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne20552.80
Trevor Lawrence8425.30
Tank Bigsby3103.30
D'Ernest Johnson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk812840
Evan Engram78590
Calvin Ridley22381
Travis Etienne33170
Luke Farrell22100
JaMycal Hasty0200
Tim Jones11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.30