Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.116
- 41.2%Success rate39.2%
- -0.002EPA / dropback-0.213
- -0.070EPA / rush+0.020
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 36.7%Third-down rate29.8%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.46Points / drive1.36
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed+0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 36 points. ATL are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 19/32 | 167 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 22 | 121 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/22 | 180 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Justin Griffith | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Woody Dantzler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.57
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.36