2019 · Week 16

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew

12·24

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -7.5

Total

48

Model margin

+3.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.053EPA / play+0.014
  • 39.3%Success rate44.5%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.159
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -3.03CPOE+2.32
  • 35.4%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.01
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 36 points. ATL are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4ATL @ JAX7–23JAX
2021 · W12ATL @ JAX21–14ATL
2015 · W15ATL @ JAX23–17ATL
2011 · W15JAX @ ATL14–41ATL
2007 · W2ATL @ JAX7–13JAX
2003 · W17JAX @ ATL14–21ATL
1999 · W9JAX @ ATL30–7JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00672Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 11:2700Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 11:18425Touchdown0–14
JAXQ1 9:28517Punt0–14
ATLQ1 6:441072Missed field goal0–14
JAXQ1 1:2232Punt0–14
ATLQ1 0:31413Turnover0–14
JAXQ2 14:151062Field goal3–14
ATLQ2 9:12955Punt3–14
JAXQ2 4:5863Punt3–14
ATLQ2 1:471054Field goal3–17
JAXQ2 0:1000End of half3–17
JAXQ3 15:00528Punt3–17
ATLQ3 11:40741Punt3–17
JAXQ3 9:0233Punt3–17
ATLQ3 7:1628Turnover3–17
JAXQ3 6:391039Field goal6–17
ATLQ3 2:29787Touchdown6–24
JAXQ4 13:36475Touchdown12–24
ATLQ4 12:00619Punt12–24
JAXQ4 8:231560Turnover on downs12–24
ATLQ4 4:30775End of half12–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew13/3118110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette15714.70
Gardner Minshew7365.10
Keelan Cole166.00
Ryquell Armstead122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Conley25561
Seth DeValve36450
Leonard Fournette36340
Keelan Cole12230
DJ Chark27180
Dede Westbrook2450

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan32/4538412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Hill7669.40
Devonta Freeman13534.11
Russell Gage273.50
Matt Ryan461.50
Qadree Ollison133.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones10151660
Austin Hooper79820
Devonta Freeman910741
Russell Gage56490
Luke Stocker0100
Justin Hardy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.83