Closing spread
ATL -7.5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play+0.014
- 39.3%Success rate44.5%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.159
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- -3.03CPOE+2.32
- 35.4%Third-down rate41.8%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.61Points / drive2.01
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 36 points. ATL are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 13/31 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Conley | 2 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Seth DeValve | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 32/45 | 384 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hill | 7 | 66 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 10 | 15 | 166 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 7 | 9 | 82 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 9 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| Russell Gage | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83