2011 · Week 15

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

14·41

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -14

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.173EPA / play+0.046
  • 36.3%Success rate43.6%
  • -0.210EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.127EPA / rush-0.087
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -11.15CPOE+1.80
  • 34.3%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.10Points / drive1.86
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 36 points. ATL are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4ATL @ JAX7–23JAX
2021 · W12ATL @ JAX21–14ATL
2019 · W16JAX @ ATL12–24ATL
2015 · W15ATL @ JAX23–17ATL
2007 · W2ATL @ JAX7–13JAX
2003 · W17JAX @ ATL14–21ATL
1999 · W9JAX @ ATL30–7JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 10:514-1Punt0–7
ATLQ1 8:51943Field goal0–10
JAXQ1 3:18514Punt0–10
ATLQ2 14:484-3Punt0–16
ATLQ2 13:0715Touchdown0–17
JAXQ2 13:03442Punt0–17
ATLQ2 11:19722Punt0–17
JAXQ2 8:0439Punt0–17
ATLQ2 5:44972Touchdown0–24
JAXQ2 1:49415Turnover0–24
ATLQ2 0:4636Field goal0–27
JAXQ3 15:003-1Opp touchdown0–34
JAXQ3 13:3332Punt0–34
ATLQ3 11:45975Touchdown0–41
JAXQ3 6:383-12Punt0–41
ATLQ3 4:3737Opp touchdown7–41
ATLQ3 2:1234Punt7–41
JAXQ3 0:3836Punt7–41
ATLQ4 14:4839Punt7–41
JAXQ4 12:35648Turnover7–41
ATLQ4 10:031260Turnover on downs7–41
JAXQ4 3:131085Touchdown14–41
ATLQ4 0:5900End of half14–41

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert12/2214111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew171126.60
Blaine Gabbert155.00
DuJuan Harris1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Price23390
Chastin West37381
Marcedes Lewis35300
Colin Cloherty12210
Jarett Dillard23120
Maurice Jones-Drew1110
DuJuan Harris0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/2622430
Chris Redman5/65600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner19613.21
Jacquizz Rodgers8101.30
Julio Jones166.00
Chris Redman2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White10161352
Julio Jones56851
Tony Gonzalez12140
Harry Douglas11120
Michael Turner2240
Jacquizz Rodgers1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.48