Closing spread
ATL -14
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play+0.046
- 36.3%Success rate43.6%
- -0.210EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.087
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- -11.15CPOE+1.80
- 34.3%Third-down rate45.0%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.10Points / drive1.86
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 36 points. ATL are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 12/22 | 141 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 17 | 112 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Price | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Chastin West | 3 | 7 | 38 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Colin Cloherty | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/26 | 224 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 5/6 | 56 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 10 | 16 | 135 | 2 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 6 | 85 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.48