Closing spread
ATL -1.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.079
- 41.2%Success rate44.0%
- -0.028EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.162EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.1%
- +0.85CPOE-4.53
- 38.5%Third-down rate35.6%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.58Points / drive1.33
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 36 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/29 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 16 | 108 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Wayne Gallman | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 6 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/42 | 228 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 17 | 86 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laquon Treadwell | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.58