2021 · Week 12

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

21·14

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

ATL -1.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.079
  • 41.2%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.028EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.162EPA / rush-0.113
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +0.85CPOE-4.53
  • 38.5%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 52.7%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.33
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 36 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4ATL @ JAX7–23JAX
2019 · W16JAX @ ATL12–24ATL
2015 · W15ATL @ JAX23–17ATL
2011 · W15JAX @ ATL14–41ATL
2007 · W2ATL @ JAX7–13JAX
2003 · W17JAX @ ATL14–21ATL
1999 · W9JAX @ ATL30–7JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–JAX
ATLQ1 15:00932Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:03828Punt0–0
ATLQ1 5:55981Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 0:38737Turnover7–0
ATLQ2 12:22739Punt7–0
JAXQ2 8:2729Turnover7–0
ATLQ2 7:44416Touchdown14–0
JAXQ2 6:401370Field goal14–3
ATLQ2 0:4527Turnover14–3
JAXQ2 0:1949Turnover on downs14–3
JAXQ3 15:00525Punt14–3
ATLQ3 12:48988Touchdown21–3
JAXQ3 7:4737Punt21–3
ATLQ3 6:2039Punt21–3
JAXQ3 4:06972Touchdown21–11
ATLQ3 0:22629Punt21–11
JAXQ4 12:571489Field goal21–14
ATLQ4 6:28933Punt21–14
JAXQ4 2:14711Turnover on downs21–14
ATLQ4 1:1900End of half21–14

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/2919011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson161086.82
Wayne Gallman4194.80
Mike Davis5163.20
Matt Ryan461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Russell Gage67621
Cordarrelle Patterson23270
Kyle Pitts26260
Mike Davis34250
Tajae Sharpe23220
Parker Hesse1170
Olamide Zaccheaus1250

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence23/4222811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson17865.10
Trevor Lawrence5397.80
Carlos Hyde6162.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laquon Treadwell48530
Marvin Jones47430
Laviska Shenault Jr.59330
James O'Shaughnessy35290
James Robinson34290
Tavon Austin22211
Chris Manhertz12110
Dan Arnold1190
Carlos Hyde0100
John Brown0100
Dare Ogunbowale0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.58