2007 · Week 2

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Joey Harrington

7·13

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

JAX -10

Total

34.5

Model margin

+8.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.148EPA / play+0.108
  • 37.3%Success rate44.1%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback+0.191
  • -0.167EPA / rush+0.015
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -3.93CPOE+2.15
  • 36.4%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.07Points / drive2.25
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 36 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4ATL @ JAX7–23JAX
2021 · W12ATL @ JAX21–14ATL
2019 · W16JAX @ ATL12–24ATL
2015 · W15ATL @ JAX23–17ATL
2011 · W15JAX @ ATL14–41ATL
2003 · W17JAX @ ATL14–21ATL
1999 · W9JAX @ ATL30–7JAX

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington12/2020000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn13503.81
Jerious Norwood9303.30
Joey Harrington221.00
Artose Pinner100.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard17/2527210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor16563.50
Maurice Jones-Drew11312.80
David Garrard5204.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +105.6%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.0%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.07