Closing spread
JAX -10
Total
34.5
Model margin
+8.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.108
- 37.3%Success rate44.1%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.167EPA / rush+0.015
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- -3.93CPOE+2.15
- 36.4%Third-down rate47.2%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.07Points / drive2.25
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 36 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:36 | 7 | 49 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 8:26 | 9 | 47 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 3:15 | 9 | 75 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q2 13:30 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q2 10:07 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q2 9:03 | 4 | 40 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q2 7:44 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q2 4:26 | 14 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q2 0:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q2 0:18 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q3 9:36 | 10 | 44 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q3 4:08 | 8 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q4 14:10 | 5 | 1 | Punt | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q4 11:42 | 12 | 55 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| ATL | Q4 3:39 | 5 | -1 | Punt | 7–13 |
| JAX | Q4 1:54 | 5 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 7–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 12/20 | 200 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 17/25 | 272 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.51
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.07