1999 · Week 9

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

30·7

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

JAX -6

Total

41

Model margin

+0.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.048EPA / play-0.094
  • 42.5%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.220
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.2%
  • 40.4%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.22
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.127EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 36 points. ATL are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4ATL @ JAX7–23JAX
2021 · W12ATL @ JAX21–14ATL
2019 · W16JAX @ ATL12–24ATL
2015 · W15ATL @ JAX23–17ATL
2011 · W15JAX @ ATL14–41ATL
2007 · W2ATL @ JAX7–13JAX
2003 · W17JAX @ ATL14–21ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–ATL
JAXQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:5734Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 10:3730Punt0–0
ATLQ1 8:4431Punt6–0
JAXQ1 7:11144Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 7:04638Punt7–0
JAXQ1 2:10684Touchdown14–0
ATLQ2 14:1410Turnover14–0
JAXQ2 13:471055Field goal17–0
ATLQ2 8:3600Missed field goal17–0
JAXQ2 8:23311Missed field goal17–0
ATLQ2 6:391381Touchdown17–7
JAXQ2 0:29328End of half17–7
ATLQ3 15:00412Punt17–7
JAXQ3 12:49941Field goal20–7
ATLQ3 8:103-10Punt20–7
JAXQ3 6:521144Touchdown27–7
ATLQ3 1:4134Punt27–7
JAXQ3 0:3431Punt27–7
ATLQ4 14:403-10Punt27–7
JAXQ4 13:31616Punt27–7
ATLQ4 10:02521Turnover on downs27–7
JAXQ4 7:28724Field goal30–7
ATLQ4 4:29741Turnover30–7
JAXQ4 1:4923End of half30–7

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell14/2720330
Jay Fiedler5/73500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor271244.60
Tavian Banks11212.00
James Stewart2115.50
Mark Brunell273.50
Jay Fiedler2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith47771
Keenan McCardell917621
Fred Taylor22540
Reggie Barlow11200
Kyle Brady14110
Damon Jones1191
Tavian Banks1150
Alvis Whitted0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler14/2516312
Tony Graziani3/54001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Byron Hanspard4112.80
Ken Oxendine5112.20
Winslow Oliver11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Kozlowski33490
Tim Dwight24471
Ken Oxendine33390
Terance Mathis38280
Jammi German11230
Byron Hanspard2270
O.J. Santiago1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.40