Closing spread
JAX -6
Total
41
Model margin
+0.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.048EPA / play-0.094
- 42.5%Success rate38.5%
- +0.145EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.220
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- 40.4%Third-down rate35.1%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.75Points / drive1.22
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.127EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 36 points. ATL are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 14/27 | 203 | 3 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 5/7 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 27 | 124 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tavian Banks | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 4 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 9 | 17 | 62 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 2 | 54 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Tavian Banks | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 14/25 | 163 | 1 | 2 |
| Tony Graziani | 3/5 | 40 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Hanspard | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ken Oxendine | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Winslow Oliver | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kozlowski | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Ken Oxendine | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.40