NFC South · 2016

Atlanta Falcons

Record

11-5

Seed

Net EPA

+0.170est.

Efficiency

How this team plays

Percentile against the teams that played this season, computed from play-by-play.

Offence

Higher is better.

EPA / play+0.196
Success rate49.5%
EPA / dropback+0.323
EPA / rush+0.001
Explosive rate11.2%
CPOE+6.59
Third-down rate43.7%
Red-zone TD rate68.3%
Points / drive2.93
Turnover rate1.1%

← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →

Defence

Oriented so that further right is always better.

EPA / play allowed+0.048
Success rate allowed46.4%
EPA / dropback allowed+0.092
EPA / rush allowed-0.050
Explosive rate allowed8.6%
Pressure rate (proxy)14.9%
Sack rate4.6%
Points / drive allowed2.11

← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →

Offensive EPA / play — league shape+0.196 · 98th %ile

Defensive EPA / play allowed — league shape (left is better)+0.048 · 72th %ile

Form

The shape of the season

Rolling four-week EPA per play. The aggregate hides collapses and surges; this shows them.

4-week rolling EPA/play — up is good for both lines.

Offense
Defense (prevented)

Betting profile

Against the number

Settled against closing lines. Descriptive, not predictive.

ATS

10-6

+6.5 vs line

Home

3-5

Away

7-1

As favorite

5-5

As dog

5-1

O/U

14-2

+9.8 vs total

Roster

99 players

53 active. Skill players link through to their fantasy page.

Quarterbacks4

Quarterbacks
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
2	Matt Ryan	QB	31	6'4" 220	8	Boston College	ACT
4	Matt Simms	QB	29	6'3" 210	4	Tennessee	DEV
8	Matt Schaub	QB	35	6'6" 245	12	Virginia	ACT
13	Sean Renfree	QB	—	6'5" 225	—	—	CUT

Backs & receivers25

Backs & receivers
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
7	David Glidden	WR	—	5'7" 173	—	—	CUT
11	Julio Jones	WR	27	6'3" 220	5	Alabama	ACT
12	Mohamed Sanu	WR	27	6'2" 210	4	Rutgers	ACT
14	Eric Weems	WR	31	5'9" 195	9	Bethune-Cookman	ACT
15	Nick Williams	WR	27	5'10" 184	3	Connecticut	ACT
16	Justin Hardy	WR	26	5'10" 192	1	East Carolina	ACT
18	Taylor Gabriel	WR	25	5'8" 167	2	Abilene Christian	ACT
19	Aldrick Robinson	WR	29	5'10" 181	5	Southern Methodist	ACT
24	Devonta Freeman	RB	24	5'8" 206	2	Florida State	ACT
26	Tevin Coleman	RB	23	6'1" 210	1	Indiana	ACT
28	Terron Ward	RB	24	5'7" 201	1	Oregon State	ACT
32	Cyrus Gray	RB	—	5'10" 206	—	—	CUT
35	Stevan Ridley	RB	27	5'11" 220	5	LSU	CUT
39	Will Ratelle	RB	—	5'9" 256	—	—	CUT
42	Patrick DiMarco	RB	27	6'1" 234	5	South Carolina	ACT
48	Arthur Lynch	TE	—	6'5" 252	—	—	CUT
80	Levine Toilolo	TE	25	6'8" 265	3	Stanford	ACT
81	Austin Hooper	TE	23	6'3" 250	R	Stanford	ACT
82	Josh Perkins	TE	23	6'3" 226	R	Washington	ACT
83	Jacob Tamme	TE	31	6'3" 230	—	Kentucky	RES
86	D.J. Tialavea	TE	25	6'4" 260	2	Utah State	ACT
87	Devin Fuller	WR	22	6'0" 194	R	UCLA	RES
—	B.J. Daniels	WR	28	5'11" 217	3	South Florida	DEV
—	Darion Griswold	TE	25	6'5" 255	R	Arkansas State	DEV
—	Jhurrell Pressley	RB	24	5'10" 206	R	New Mexico	DEV

Offensive line16

Offensive line
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
51	Alex Mack	OL	32	6'4" 311	7	California	ACT
60	Trevor Robinson	OL	26	6'5" 300	—	—	CUT
63	Ben Garland	OL	28	6'5" 308	6	Air Force	ACT
64	Collin Rahrig	OL	—	6'2" 285	—	—	CUT
65	Chris Chester	OL	33	6'3" 303	10	Oklahoma	ACT
66	Kevin Graf	OL	25	6'6" 309	2	USC	DEV
67	Andy Levitre	OL	30	6'2" 303	7	Oregon State	ACT
69	Jake Reed	OL	—	6'3" 298	—	—	CUT
70	Jake Matthews	OL	24	6'5" 305	2	Texas A&M	ACT
71	Wes Schweitzer	OL	24	6'4" 314	R	San Jose State	ACT
73	Ryan Schraeder	OL	28	6'7" 300	3	Valdosta State	ACT
74	Michael Huey	OL	—	6'4" 317	—	—	CUT
76	Tom Compton	OL	27	6'5" 308	4	South Dakota	ACT
79	Jordan Walsh	OL	—	6'2" 292	—	—	CUT
—	Carter Bykowski	OL	26	6'7" 313	—	—	DEV
—	Blake Muir	OL	25	6'6" 315	R	Baylor	DEV

Defensive front31

Defensive front
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
41	Philip Wheeler	LB	33	6'2" 245	8	Georgia Tech	ACT
44	Vic Beasley	LB	24	6'3" 235	1	Clemson	ACT
45	Deion Jones	LB	23	6'1" 227	R	Louisiana State	ACT
46	Matt Wells	LB	—	6'2" 222	—	—	CUT
48	Ivan McLennan	LB	—	6'2" 238	—	—	CUT
50	Brooks Reed	DL	29	6'3" 254	5	Arizona	ACT
52	Tyler Starr	LB	25	6'5" 250	—	—	RES
52	Josh Keyes	LB	23	6'2" 223	1	Boston College	ACT
53	LaRoy Reynolds	LB	27	6'1" 243	3	Virginia	ACT
54	A.J. Hawk	LB	32	6'1" 240	—	—	CUT
54	O'Brien Schofield	DL	29	6'3" 242	—	—	CUT
54	Malliciah Goodman	DL	26	6'4" 276	3	Clemson	CUT
55	Paul Worrilow	LB	26	6'0" 232	3	Delaware	ACT
56	Sean Weatherspoon	LB	30	6'2" 244	6	Missouri	RES
59	De'Vondre Campbell	LB	23	6'3" 239	R	Minnesota	ACT
63	Efe Obada	DL	24	6'6" 265	1	No College	CUT
71	Brandon Williams	DL	—	6'5" 256	—	—	CUT
74	Chris Mayes	DL	26	6'3" 349	—	—	RES
77	Ra'Shede Hageman	DL	26	6'6" 318	2	Minnesota	ACT
90	Derrick Shelby	DL	27	6'2" 280	4	Utah	RES
91	Courtney Upshaw	DL	28	6'2" 272	4	Alabama	ACT
92	Joe Vellano	DL	29	6'2" 300	3	Maryland	ACT
93	Dwight Freeney	DL	36	6'1" 268	14	Syracuse	ACT
94	Tyson Jackson	DL	30	6'4" 296	7	LSU	ACT
95	Jonathan Babineaux	DL	36	6'2" 300	11	Iowa	ACT
96	Cliff Matthews	DL	27	6'4" 268	—	—	CUT
97	Grady Jarrett	DL	23	6'0" 290	1	Clemson	ACT
99	Adrian Clayborn	DL	28	6'3" 280	5	Iowa	RES
—	Jimmy Staten	DL	25	6'3" 311	2	Middle Tennessee State	DEV
—	Davis Tull	LB	26	6'3" 240	1	Tennessee-Chattanooga	CUT
—	Martin Ifedi	DL	26	6'3" 275	1	Memphis	DEV

Secondary18

Secondary
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
20	Sharrod Neasman	DB	26	5'11" 198	R	Florida Atlantic	ACT
21	Desmond Trufant	DB	27	6'0" 190	3	Washington	RES
22	Keanu Neal	DB	21	6'0" 214	R	Florida	ACT
23	Robert Alford	DB	29	5'10" 186	3	Southeastern Louisiana	ACT
25	Akeem King	DB	24	6'1" 212	1	San Jose State	RES
29	C.J. Goodwin	DB	26	6'3" 190	2	California, Pa.	ACT
30	Deji Olatoye	DB	25	6'1" 194	2	North Carolina A&T	ACT
32	Jalen Collins	DB	23	6'1" 203	1	LSU	ACT
33	Blidi Wreh-Wilson	DB	28	6'1" 198	3	Connecticut	ACT
33	Devonte Johnson	DB	23	5'10" 180	R	Weber State	CUT
34	Brian Poole	DB	25	5'9" 211	R	Florida	ACT
36	Kemal Ishmael	DB	25	6'0" 206	3	Central Florida	RES
37	Ricardo Allen	DB	26	5'9" 186	2	Purdue	ACT
38	Dashon Goldson	DB	33	6'2" 200	9	Washington	ACT
38	David Mims II	DB	—	5'10" 184	—	—	CUT
39	Jordan Sefon	DB	—	5'11" 192	—	—	CUT
43	DeMarcus Van Dyke	DB	—	6'1" 185	—	—	CUT
—	Ryan White	DB	24	5'10" 196	—	—	DEV

Specialists5

Specialists
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
1	Nick Rose	K	—	6'2" 190	R	Texas	CUT
3	Matt Bryant	K	41	5'9" 203	14	Baylor	ACT
5	Matt Bosher	P	30	6'0" 208	5	Miami (Fla.)	ACT
6	Shayne Graham	K	—	6'0" 210	—	—	CUT
47	Josh Harris	LS	27	6'1" 224	4	Auburn	ACT

Schedule

19 games

Atlanta Falcons schedule
Wk	Opponent	Result	Spread	EPA/play
1	vs Buccaneers	L 24-31	-2.5	+0.004
2	@ Raiders	W 35-28	+4	+0.348
3	@ Saints	W 45-32	+2.5	+0.454
4	vs Panthers	W 48-33	+2.5	+0.298
5	@ Broncos	W 23-16	+3.5	+0.014
6	@ Seahawks	L 24-26	+7	+0.043
7	vs Chargers	L 30-33	-4.5	-0.007
8	vs Packers	W 33-32	-3	+0.292
9	@ Buccaneers	W 43-28	-4.5	+0.331
10	@ Eagles	L 15-24	+2	-0.060
12	vs Cardinals	W 38-19	-3.5	+0.184
13	vs Chiefs	L 28-29	-5	+0.113
14	@ Rams	W 42-14	-4.5	+0.147
15	vs 49ers	W 41-13	-13.5	+0.321
16	@ Panthers	W 33-16	-3	+0.243
17	vs Saints	W 38-32	-7.5	+0.377
DIV	vs Seahawks	W 36-20	-6.5	+0.261
CON	vs Packers	W 44-21	-6.5	+0.414
SB	vs Patriots	L 28-34	+3	+0.106