AFC East · 2017

Buffalo Bills

Record

9-7

Seed

Net EPA

-0.074est.

Efficiency

How this team plays

Percentile against the teams that played this season, computed from play-by-play.

Offence

Higher is better.

EPA / play-0.071
Success rate39.0%
EPA / dropback-0.024
EPA / rush-0.135
Explosive rate8.5%
CPOE-0.28
Third-down rate42.2%
Red-zone TD rate52.1%
Points / drive1.47
Turnover rate1.6%

← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →

Defence

Oriented so that further right is always better.

EPA / play allowed+0.016
Success rate allowed43.7%
EPA / dropback allowed+0.023
EPA / rush allowed+0.007
Explosive rate allowed9.7%
Pressure rate (proxy)15.1%
Sack rate4.2%
Points / drive allowed1.89

← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →

Offensive EPA / play — league shape-0.071 · 31th %ile

Defensive EPA / play allowed — league shape (left is better)+0.016 · 69th %ile

Form

The shape of the season

Rolling four-week EPA per play. The aggregate hides collapses and surges; this shows them.

4-week rolling EPA/play — up is good for both lines.

Offense
Defense (prevented)

Betting profile

Against the number

Settled against closing lines. Descriptive, not predictive.

ATS

9-6-1

-1.6 vs line

Home

5-2-1

Away

4-4

As favorite

5-1-1

As dog

4-5

O/U

8-8

-2.3 vs total

Roster

106 players

55 active. Skill players link through to their fantasy page.

Quarterbacks4

Quarterbacks
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
2	Nathan Peterman	QB	23	6'2" 225	R	Pittsburgh	ACT
3	Keith Wenning	QB	—	6'3" 225	3	Ball State	CUT
5	Tyrod Taylor	QB	28	6'1" 215	6	Virginia Tech	ACT
14	Joe Webb	QB	32	6'4" 230	7	Alabama-Birmingham	ACT

Backs & receivers34

Backs & receivers
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
8	Rod Streater	WR	—	6'2" 200	5	Temple	CUT
10	Deonte Thompson	WR	28	6'0" 204	5	Florida	ACT
10	Corey Brown	WR	—	5'11" 190	3	Ohio State	CUT
11	Quan Bray	WR	24	5'10" 183	2	Auburn	DEV
11	Zay Jones	WR	22	6'2" 200	R	East Carolina	ACT
13	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	26	6'5" 245	3	Florida State	ACT
13	Dezmin Lewis	WR	—	6'4" 214	2	Central Arkansas	CUT
15	Brandon Tate	WR	31	6'1" 195	8	North Carolina	ACT
16	Malachi Dupre	WR	23	6'2" 195	R	LSU	ACT
16	Daikiel Shorts	WR	24	6'1" 202	R	West Virginia	CUT
17	Jeremy Butler	WR	26	6'2" 213	3	Tennessee-Martin	RES
18	Andre Holmes	WR	29	6'4" 210	6	Hillsdale	RES
19	Walt Powell	WR	27	6'0" 189	3	Murray State	CUT
22	Joe Banyard	RB	30	5'10" 221	5	Texas-El Paso	CUT
25	LeSean McCoy	RB	29	5'11" 210	8	Pittsburgh	ACT
26	Taiwan Jones	RB	29	6'0" 195	6	Eastern Washington	RES
35	Mike Tolbert	RB	33	5'9" 250	9	Coastal Carolina	ACT
36	Aaron Green	RB	26	5'11" 206	1	Texas Christian	DEV
39	Travaris Cadet	RB	28	6'1" 210	5	Appalachian State	RES
39	Jordan Johnson	RB	—	6'1" 220	R	Buffalo	CUT
42	Patrick DiMarco	RB	28	6'1" 234	6	South Carolina	ACT
44	Cedric O'Neal	RB	—	5'10" 215	1	Valdosta State	CUT
45	Marcus Murphy	RB	27	5'9" 195	2	Missouri	ACT
80	Wes Saxton	TE	—	6'4" 235	2	South Alabama	CUT
81	Anquan Boldin	WR	—	6'1" 220	14	Florida State	CUT
82	Logan Thomas	TE	26	6'6" 250	3	Virginia Tech	ACT
84	Nick O'Leary	TE	25	6'3" 252	2	Florida State	ACT
85	Charles Clay	TE	28	6'3" 255	6	Tulsa	ACT
87	Jordan Matthews	WR	25	6'3" 212	3	Vanderbilt	RES
88	Khari Lee	TE	25	6'4" 253	2	Bowie State	ACT
88	Rory Anderson	TE	—	6'4" 246	2	South Carolina	CUT
88	Jason Croom	TE	23	6'5" 246	R	Tennessee	DEV
89	Brandon Reilly	WR	25	6'2" 200	R	Nebraska	ACT
89	Keith Towbridge	TE	22	6'5" 262	R	Louisville	RES

Offensive line18

Offensive line
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
61	Adam Redmond	OL	24	6'5" 300	1	Harvard	DEV
61	Jordan Mudge	OL	28	6'4" 300	R	Nevada	CUT
62	Vladimir Ducasse	OL	31	6'5" 329	7	Massachusetts	ACT
63	Greg Pyke	OL	—	6'6" 325	R	Georgia	CUT
64	Richie Incognito	OL	34	6'3" 322	12	Nebraska	ACT
66	Seantrel Henderson	OL	25	6'7" 331	3	Miami (Fla.)	ACT
66	Josh James	OL	24	6'5" 314	1	Carroll (Mont.)	DEV
68	Conor McDermott	OL	26	6'8" 305	R	UCLA	ACT
68	Zach Voytek	OL	—	6'5" 305	R	New Haven	CUT
70	Eric Wood	OL	31	6'4" 310	8	Louisville	ACT
71	Karim Barton	OL	—	6'3" 313	3	Morgan State	CUT
72	Ryan Groy	OL	28	6'5" 320	3	Wisconsin	ACT
73	Dion Dawkins	OL	23	6'4" 320	R	Temple	ACT
74	De'Ondre Wesley	OL	25	6'6" 331	2	Brigham Young	DEV
75	Will Pericak	OL	29	6'3" 300	4	Colorado	ACT
76	John Miller	OL	24	6'3" 315	2	Louisville	ACT
77	Cordy Glenn	OL	29	6'6" 345	5	Georgia	RES
79	Jordan Mills	OL	28	6'5" 316	4	Louisiana Tech	ACT

Defensive front24

Defensive front
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
40	Tanner Vallejo	LB	24	6'1" 228	R	Boise State	ACT
44	Deon Lacey	LB	27	6'3" 235	4	West Alabama	ACT
46	Abner Logan	LB	—	6'2" 235	R	Albany	CUT
48	Jacob Lindsey	LB	—	6'2" 220	R	Harvard	CUT
49	Sam Barrington	LB	—	6'1" 240	4	South Florida	CUT
50	Ramon Humber	LB	30	5'11" 232	8	North Dakota State	ACT
52	Preston Brown	LB	26	6'1" 251	3	Louisville	ACT
54	Eddie Yarbrough	DL	24	6'2" 259	1	Wyoming	ACT
55	Jerry Hughes	DL	29	6'2" 254	7	Texas Christian	ACT
56	Ryan Davis	DL	28	6'2" 260	5	Bethune-Cookman	ACT
56	Xavier Woodson-Luster	LB	22	6'1" 219	R	Arkansas State	DEV
57	Lorenzo Alexander	LB	34	6'1" 245	12	California	ACT
58	Matt Milano	LB	23	6'0" 223	R	Boston College	ACT
75	Cap Capi	DL	25	6'3" 249	2	Akron	ACT
90	Shaq Lawson	DL	23	6'3" 267	1	Clemson	RES
91	Cedric Thornton	DL	29	6'4" 295	6	Southern Arkansas	ACT
91	Ian Seau	DL	—	6'2" 250	1	Nevada	CUT
92	Adolphus Washington	DL	26	6'4" 295	1	Ohio State	ACT
93	Nigel Williams	DL	—	6'2" 297	R	Virginia Tech	CUT
94	Jerel Worthy	DL	27	6'2" 300	5	Michigan State	CUT
94	Rickey Hatley	DL	23	6'4" 320	R	Missouri	ACT
95	Kyle Williams	DL	34	6'1" 303	11	Louisiana State	ACT
97	Marquavius Lewis	DL	26	6'3" 270	R	South Carolina	DEV
98	Deandre Coleman	DL	26	6'5" 341	3	California	CUT

Secondary21

Secondary
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
20	Shareece Wright	DB	30	5'11" 184	6	USC	ACT
21	Jordan Poyer	DB	26	6'0" 191	4	Oregon State	ACT
23	Micah Hyde	DB	28	6'0" 197	4	Iowa	ACT
23	L.J. McCray	DB	26	6'0" 210	3	Catawba	CUT
24	Leonard Johnson	DB	27	5'10" 194	5	Iowa State	ACT
27	Tre'Davious White	DB	22	5'11" 192	R	Louisiana State	ACT
28	E.J. Gaines	DB	25	5'10" 185	3	Missouri	ACT
29	Robert Blanton	DB	29	6'1" 200	5	Notre Dame	CUT
29	Shamarko Thomas	DB	26	5'9" 217	4	Syracuse	ACT
29	Dean Marlowe	DB	25	6'1" 208	2	James Madison	DEV
30	Bacarri Rambo	DB	—	6'0" 211	4	Georgia	CUT
30	Lafayette Pitts	DB	26	5'11" 194	1	Pittsburgh	ACT
33	Colt Anderson	DB	33	5'10" 195	8	Montana	ACT
36	Orion Stewart	DB	23	6'2" 205	R	Baylor	ACT
37	Shamiel Gary	DB	—	6'0" 217	3	Oklahoma State	CUT
37	Lorenzo Doss	DB	23	5'11" 187	2	Tulane	CUT
38	Jumal Rolle	DB	—	6'0" 190	4	Catawba	CUT
39	Adrian McDonald	DB	—	5'9" 190	1	Houston	CUT
41	Breon Borders	DB	22	6'0" 189	R	Duke	ACT
43	Joe Powell	DB	—	6'2" 205	1	Globe Tech NY (J.C.)	CUT
47	B.T. Sanders	DB	—	6'0" 195	R	Nicholls State	CUT

Specialists5

Specialists
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
2	Cory Carter	P	23	5'11" 220	1	Texas Southern	DEV
3	Austin Rehkow	P	—	6'3" 213	R	Idaho	CUT
4	Stephen Hauschka	K	32	6'4" 210	9	North Carolina State	ACT
6	Colton Schmidt	P	28	5'11" 224	4	California-Davis	ACT
69	Reid Ferguson	LS	23	6'1" 244	1	Louisiana State	ACT

Schedule

17 games

Buffalo Bills schedule
Wk	Opponent	Result	Spread	EPA/play
1	vs Jets	W 21-12	-7	+0.079
2	@ Panthers	L 3-9	+6.5	-0.264
3	vs Broncos	W 26-16	+3.5	-0.066
4	@ Falcons	W 23-17	+8	+0.030
5	@ Bengals	L 16-20	+3	-0.151
7	vs Buccaneers	W 30-27	-3	+0.137
8	vs Raiders	W 34-14	-2.5	+0.050
9	@ Jets	L 21-34	-3	-0.145
10	vs Saints	L 10-47	+2	-0.334
11	@ Chargers	L 24-54	+7	-0.218
12	@ Chiefs	W 16-10	+8.5	-0.106
13	vs Patriots	L 3-23	+7.5	-0.240
14	vs Colts	W 13-7	-3.5	-0.171
15	vs Dolphins	W 24-16	-3.5	+0.087
16	@ Patriots	L 16-37	+11	-0.081
17	@ Dolphins	W 22-16	-2.5	+0.169
WC	@ Jaguars	L 3-10	+8.5	-0.187