2018 · Week 16

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

22·10

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

LAC -4

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapChargers
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.126
  • 45.8%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.211
  • +0.003EPA / rush+0.001
  • 8.8%Explosive rate12.5%
  • -3.77CPOE+3.54
  • 45.4%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.31
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–4 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. LAC are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12BAL @ LAC30–23BAL
2023 · W12BAL @ LAC20–10BAL
2021 · W6LAC @ BAL6–34BAL
2018 · playoffsLAC @ BAL23–17CHARGERS
2015 · W8SD @ BAL26–29BAL
2014 · W13SD @ BAL34–33CHARGERS
2012 · W12BAL @ SD16–13BAL
2011 · W15BAL @ SD14–34CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–LAC
LACQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
BALQ1 14:47446Field goal3–0
LACQ1 12:4338Punt3–0
BALQ1 11:10737Missed field goal3–0
LACQ1 6:5856Punt3–0
BALQ1 4:471381Turnover on downs3–0
LACQ2 12:10727Punt3–0
BALQ2 8:111031Field goal6–0
LACQ2 2:50931Field goal6–3
BALQ2 0:40528Missed field goal6–3
BALQ3 15:0010Turnover6–3
LACQ3 14:44317Touchdown6–10
BALQ3 13:18285Touchdown13–10
LACQ3 12:18515Punt13–10
BALQ3 9:07721Field goal16–10
LACQ3 5:3646Punt16–10
BALQ3 2:5739Punt16–10
LACQ3 1:27611Punt16–10
BALQ4 14:3730Punt16–10
LACQ4 12:191234Punt16–10
BALQ4 4:3534Punt16–10
LACQ4 3:00211Opp touchdown22–10
LACQ4 2:40632Turnover22–10
BALQ4 1:21121End of half22–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson12/2220410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards14926.60
Lamar Jackson13393.00
Kenneth Dixon8283.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews22831
John Brown26270
Michael Crabtree14200
Kenneth Dixon23200
Hayden Hurst12180
Nick Boyle22150
Gus Edwards11130
Chris Moore1180
Ty Montgomery0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers23/3718102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon12413.41
Travis Benjamin166.00
Mike Williams144.00
Philip Rivers111.00
Justin Jackson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen58580
Justin Jackson710470
Antonio Gates35210
Melvin Gordon33130
Virgil Green22120
Tyrell Williams12120
Travis Benjamin13110
Mike Williams1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.35
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.85