Closing spread
LAC -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.126
- 45.8%Success rate47.0%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.003EPA / rush+0.001
- 8.8%Explosive rate12.5%
- -3.77CPOE+3.54
- 45.4%Third-down rate39.7%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
- 2.01Points / drive2.31
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. LAC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 12/22 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 14 | 92 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 83 | 1 |
| John Brown | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 23/37 | 181 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 7 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.35
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.85