Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BAL are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 19/31 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 24 | 106 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 6 | 8 | 65 | 2 |
| Kamar Aiken | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.