Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Total
50
Model margin
-0.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BAL are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/37 | 319 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Chris Givens | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.