Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Total
50
Model margin
-0.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutEric WeddleSGroin· DNP
- OutManti Te'oLBAnkle· DNP
- OutOrlando FranklinGAnkle· DNP
- OutTourek WilliamsLBFoot· Limited
- DoubtfulDenzel PerrymanLBBiceps· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GatesTEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableCraig MagerCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableSean LissemoreDTHamstring· DNP
- DNPChris HairstonTIllness
- ProbableChris WattCGroin· Full
- ProbableMelvin GordonRBAnkle· Full
Ravens
- OutBreshad PerrimanWRKnee· DNP
- OutTray WalkerCBConcussion· DNP
- DoubtfulEugene MonroeTShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGKnee· Limited
- QuestionableKendrick LewisSKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMaxx WilliamsTEKnee· Limited
- ProbableSteve SmithWRKnee· Full
- ProbableTerrence BrooksSThumb· Full
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BAL are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 13:09 | 7 | 16 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 9:54 | 8 | 56 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q1 5:44 | 7 | 70 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| LAC | Q1 2:36 | 14 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| BAL | Q2 10:16 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q2 4:54 | 14 | 68 | Touchdown | 16–13 |
| BAL | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–13 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 16–16 |
| LAC | Q3 11:11 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 16–16 |
| BAL | Q3 6:15 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 16–16 |
| LAC | Q3 3:18 | 3 | 70 | Touchdown | 23–16 |
| BAL | Q3 2:54 | 9 | 53 | Field goal | 23–19 |
| LAC | Q4 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 23–19 |
| BAL | Q4 12:10 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 23–19 |
| LAC | Q4 9:13 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 23–19 |
| BAL | Q4 7:30 | 6 | 38 | Touchdown | 23–26 |
| LAC | Q4 4:34 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 26–26 |
| BAL | Q4 2:27 | 9 | 47 | Field goal | 26–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/37 | 319 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Chris Givens | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.