Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Ravens
- OutJimmy SmithCBAbdomen· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulChris JohnsonCBThigh· DNP
- QuestionablePernell McPheeDEThigh· Limited
- ProbableBernard PollardSChest· Limited
- ProbableDannell EllerbeLBToe· Limited
- ProbableDennis PittaTEHead· Limited
- ProbableEd DicksonTENeck· Limited
- ProbableEd ReedSShoulder· Limited
- ProbableHaloti NgataDTShoulder· Limited
- ProbableJacoby JonesWRAnkle· Limited
- ProbableJames IhedigboSNeck· Limited
- ProbableTerrell SuggsLBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableTerrence CodyDTElbow· Limited
- ProbableBrendon AyanbadejoLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableCourtney UpshawDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableMarshal YandaGAnkle· Full
Chargers
- OutEddie RoyalWRHamstring· DNP
- OutLarry EnglishLBCalf· DNP
- DoubtfulDante RosarioTEHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulTyronne GreenGHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableAubrayo FranklinDTKnee· Limited
- DNPJared GaitherTGroin
- ProbableAtari BigbySShoulder· Full
- ProbableLouis VasquezGAnkle· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPright Ankle· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. SD are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 11:31 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:23 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 5:00 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 1:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q2 13:45 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q2 9:43 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 7:56 | 10 | 53 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| BAL | Q2 3:04 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 2:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BAL | Q2 1:45 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 59 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 12:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q3 10:17 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 7:56 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q3 6:18 | 11 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 0:30 | 13 | 62 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| BAL | Q4 7:51 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q4 4:19 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–13 |
| BAL | Q4 3:09 | 12 | 50 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| LAC | OT | 8 | 34 | Punt | 13–13 |
| BAL | OT | 7 | 37 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LAC | OT | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–13 |
| BAL | OT | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 16–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 30/51 | 355 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 22 | 97 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 7 | 13 | 144 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 6 | 9 | 42 | 1 |
| Tandon Doss | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.