Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. SD are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 30/51 | 355 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 22 | 97 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 7 | 13 | 144 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 6 | 9 | 42 | 1 |
| Tandon Doss | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.