2024 · Week 12

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

30·23

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

51

Model margin

-1.1est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapChargers
  • +0.199EPA / play+0.044
  • 49.4%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.328EPA / dropback+0.127
  • +0.053EPA / rush-0.079
  • 12.0%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +4.67CPOE+1.69
  • 47.9%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 76.9%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 2.80Points / drive2.25
  • 1.0%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–4 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. LAC are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W12BAL @ LAC20–10BAL
2021 · W6LAC @ BAL6–34BAL
2018 · playoffsLAC @ BAL23–17CHARGERS
2018 · W16BAL @ LAC22–10BAL
2015 · W8SD @ BAL26–29BAL
2014 · W13SD @ BAL34–33CHARGERS
2012 · W12BAL @ SD16–13BAL
2011 · W15BAL @ SD14–34CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–LAC
LACQ1 15:00970Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 9:45615Punt0–7
LACQ1 6:31728Punt0–7
BALQ1 2:5735Punt0–7
LACQ1 1:591040Field goal0–10
BALQ2 11:26875Touchdown7–10
LACQ2 7:48628Punt7–10
BALQ2 3:54981Touchdown14–10
LACQ2 0:24436Field goal14–13
BALQ3 15:00943Field goal17–13
LACQ3 9:291046Field goal17–16
BALQ3 4:081480Touchdown23–16
LACQ4 12:3244Punt23–16
BALQ4 10:45672Touchdown30–16
LACQ4 7:244-8Punt30–16
BALQ4 6:31720Punt30–16
LACQ4 3:081541Touchdown30–23
BALQ4 0:4600End of half30–23

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson16/2217720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry241405.80
Justice Hill45513.81
Lamar Jackson8151.91
Mark Andrews122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers58620
Mark Andrews55441
Rashod Bateman23431
Tylan Wallace11150
Justice Hill2270
Charlie Kolar1160
Diontae Johnson0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert21/3621800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins6406.70
Justin Herbert4297.31
Gus Edwards9111.21
Hassan Haskins133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey66830
Will Dissly44470
Josh Palmer38380
Jalen Reagor24200
J.K. Dobbins35190
Tucker Fisk1170
Derius Davis2240
Gus Edwards0100
Quentin Johnston0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.12