Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
51
Model margin
-1.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.199EPA / play+0.044
- 49.4%Success rate42.3%
- +0.328EPA / dropback+0.127
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.079
- 12.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- +4.67CPOE+1.69
- 47.9%Third-down rate40.1%
- 76.9%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 2.80Points / drive2.25
- 1.0%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. LAC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/22 | 177 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 140 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/36 | 218 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 9 | 11 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 6 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.12