2021 · Week 6

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

6·34

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

50.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapRavens
  • +0.088EPA / play+0.009
  • 47.4%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.046
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -0.71CPOE+0.31
  • 45.7%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 68.6%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 2.55Points / drive1.93
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–4 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BAL are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12BAL @ LAC30–23BAL
2023 · W12BAL @ LAC20–10BAL
2018 · playoffsLAC @ BAL23–17CHARGERS
2018 · W16BAL @ LAC22–10BAL
2015 · W8SD @ BAL26–29BAL
2014 · W13SD @ BAL34–33CHARGERS
2012 · W12BAL @ SD16–13BAL
2011 · W15BAL @ SD14–34CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–BAL
LACQ1 15:00933Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:511285Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 5:123-1Punt0–7
BALQ1 3:19984Touchdown0–14
LACQ2 13:2437Punt0–14
BALQ2 12:1135Punt0–14
LACQ2 10:44525Turnover on downs0–14
BALQ2 9:0935Field goal0–17
LACQ2 7:03521Turnover0–17
BALQ2 4:3310Turnover0–17
LACQ2 4:20227Touchdown6–17
BALQ2 4:0474Punt6–17
LACQ2 0:06116End of half6–17
BALQ3 15:001252Touchdown6–24
LACQ3 7:3954Turnover on downs6–24
BALQ3 5:553-3Field goal6–27
LACQ3 5:0230Punt6–27
BALQ3 4:40965Touchdown6–34
LACQ4 14:551158Punt6–34
BALQ4 10:14618Turnover6–34
LACQ4 6:32918Turnover on downs6–34
BALQ4 2:08214End of half6–34

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert22/3919511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert2126.00
Austin Ekeler671.20
Joshua Kelley471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen55500
Austin Ekeler47480
Mike Williams25270
Jared Cook47251
Jalen Guyton15150
Donald Parham22100
Josh Palmer1480
Justin Jackson1170
Stephen Anderson12-10

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson19/2716712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman9535.91
Lamar Jackson8516.40
Latavius Murray9444.91
Le'Veon Bell8182.31
Devin Duvernay11111.00
Tyler Huntley3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews56681
Marquise Brown45350
Rashod Bateman46290
Devin Duvernay23150
Latavius Murray22120
Miles Boykin1160
Josh Oliver1120
Devonta Freeman0200
James Proche0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.8%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.85