Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
50.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play+0.009
- 47.4%Success rate46.3%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.046
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- -0.71CPOE+0.31
- 45.7%Third-down rate36.5%
- 68.6%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 2.55Points / drive1.93
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BAL are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/39 | 195 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 7 | 25 | 1 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 19/27 | 167 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| James Proche | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.85