2023 · Week 12

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

20·10

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

49

Model margin

-2.5est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapChargers
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.070
  • 47.3%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback+0.018
  • +0.009EPA / rush-0.242
  • 9.8%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +2.73CPOE-1.84
  • 42.3%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.75
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–4 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. LAC are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12BAL @ LAC30–23BAL
2021 · W6LAC @ BAL6–34BAL
2018 · playoffsLAC @ BAL23–17CHARGERS
2018 · W16BAL @ LAC22–10BAL
2015 · W8SD @ BAL26–29BAL
2014 · W13SD @ BAL34–33CHARGERS
2012 · W12BAL @ SD16–13BAL
2011 · W15BAL @ SD14–34CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–LAC
LACQ1 15:001169Field goal0–3
BALQ1 9:03727Punt0–3
LACQ1 5:13610Punt0–3
BALQ1 2:021388Touchdown7–3
LACQ2 10:413-1Punt7–3
BALQ2 8:581045Turnover on downs7–3
LACQ2 4:1327Turnover7–3
BALQ2 3:3344Field goal10–3
LACQ2 1:12322Turnover10–3
BALQ2 0:264-4Turnover on downs10–3
LACQ2 0:0310Turnover10–3
BALQ3 15:00845Field goal13–3
LACQ3 10:5339Punt13–3
BALQ3 9:57955Punt13–3
LACQ3 6:151971Turnover13–3
BALQ4 12:3135Punt13–3
LACQ4 11:23760Touchdown13–10
BALQ4 8:32854Missed field goal13–10
LACQ4 2:57620Turnover on downs13–10
BALQ4 1:54344Touchdown20–10
LACQ4 1:36512Turnover on downs20–10
BALQ4 0:5300End of half20–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson18/3217710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Keaton Mitchell9647.10
Lamar Jackson11393.50
Zay Flowers13737.01
Justice Hill5316.20
Gus Edwards8263.30
Devin Duvernay100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Likely46400
Odell Beckham Jr.35340
Keaton Mitchell22250
Zay Flowers58251
Nelson Agholor12210
Rashod Bateman25210
Gus Edwards11110
Justice Hill0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert29/4421711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert44711.80
Austin Ekeler10323.20
Joshua Kelley382.70
Derius Davis2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen14161060
Gerald Everett44431
Austin Ekeler56320
Alex Erickson13170
Quentin Johnston1370
Joshua Kelley2260
Jalen Guyton1540
Derius Davis1120
Stone Smartt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.4%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.49