Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
49
Model margin
-2.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.070
- 47.3%Success rate41.4%
- +0.111EPA / dropback+0.018
- +0.009EPA / rush-0.242
- 9.8%Explosive rate6.9%
- +2.73CPOE-1.84
- 42.3%Third-down rate38.3%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 2.25Points / drive1.75
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. LAC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/32 | 177 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Mitchell | 9 | 64 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 37 | 37.0 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 8 | 25 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 29/44 | 217 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 14 | 16 | 106 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.95
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.49