2018 · WC

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

23·17

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

43

Model margin

-0.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapRavens
  • +0.126EPA / play+0.035
  • 47.0%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.061
  • +0.001EPA / rush+0.003
  • 12.5%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +3.54CPOE-3.77
  • 39.7%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 70.7%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.01
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–4 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BAL are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12BAL @ LAC30–23BAL
2023 · W12BAL @ LAC20–10BAL
2021 · W6LAC @ BAL6–34BAL
2018 · W16BAL @ LAC22–10BAL
2015 · W8SD @ BAL26–29BAL
2014 · W13SD @ BAL34–33CHARGERS
2012 · W12BAL @ SD16–13BAL
2011 · W15BAL @ SD14–34CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–BAL
BALQ1 15:00621Punt0–0
LACQ1 11:5437Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:2120Turnover0–0
LACQ1 9:3546Field goal3–0
BALQ1 6:59613Punt3–0
LACQ1 3:2137Field goal6–0
BALQ1 1:0838Punt6–0
LACQ2 14:14629Punt6–0
BALQ2 10:17421Turnover6–0
LACQ2 8:51927Field goal9–0
BALQ2 3:2236Punt9–0
LACQ2 1:481153Field goal12–0
LACQ3 15:0033Missed field goal12–0
BALQ3 13:453-10Punt12–0
LACQ3 11:42214Turnover12–0
BALQ3 10:2636Field goal12–3
LACQ3 8:3034Punt12–3
BALQ3 6:54418Missed field goal12–3
LACQ3 4:221060Touchdown20–3
BALQ4 14:443-9Punt20–3
LACQ4 13:09616Field goal23–3
BALQ4 9:09875Touchdown23–10
LACQ4 6:3335Punt23–10
BALQ4 4:471185Touchdown23–17
LACQ4 1:59413Punt23–17
BALQ4 0:452-5Turnover23–17
LACQ4 0:1900End of half23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers22/3216000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon17402.41
Austin Ekeler11292.60
Philip Rivers3155.00
Justin Jackson252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams25420
Keenan Allen46370
Antonio Gates44350
Austin Ekeler44140
Travis Benjamin33110
Tyrell Williams2490
Virgil Green1180
Melvin Gordon1130

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson14/2919421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson9546.00
Gus Edwards8232.90
Kenneth Dixon6132.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenneth Dixon33530
Willie Snead36500
Michael Crabtree24382
Mark Andrews37310
John Brown23140
Maxx Williams1180
Chris Moore0100
Hayden Hurst0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.13