Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
43
Model margin
-0.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play+0.035
- 47.0%Success rate45.8%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.061
- +0.001EPA / rush+0.003
- 12.5%Explosive rate8.8%
- +3.54CPOE-3.77
- 39.7%Third-down rate45.4%
- 70.7%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.31Points / drive2.01
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BAL are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 22/32 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 17 | 40 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/29 | 194 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Dixon | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 2 | 4 | 38 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.13