Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
49
Model margin
+1.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.014
- 41.3%Success rate42.7%
- +0.025EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.116EPA / rush+0.004
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.9%
- -3.23CPOE-1.81
- 36.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.80Points / drive1.85
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. ARI are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 30/43 | 247 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 127 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 8 | 13 | 66 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 8 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 3 | 4 | 29 | 2 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 19/25 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 22 | 137 | 6.2 | 4 |
| Kyler Murray | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damiere Byrd | 6 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59