2019 · Week 15

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

24·38

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

49

Model margin

+1.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.027EPA / play+0.014
  • 41.3%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.116EPA / rush+0.004
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -3.23CPOE-1.81
  • 36.3%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.85
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. ARI are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9ARI @ CLE0–27CLE
2021 · W6ARI @ CLE37–14ARI
2015 · W8ARI @ CLE34–20ARI
2011 · W15CLE @ ARI17–20ARI
2007 · W13CLE @ ARI21–27ARI
2003 · W11ARI @ CLE6–44CLE
2000 · W6CLE @ ARI21–29ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–ARI
ARIQ1 15:001090Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 10:091158Turnover0–7
ARIQ1 4:11434Punt0–7
CLEQ1 2:0532Punt0–7
ARIQ1 0:20672Touchdown0–14
CLEQ2 12:02788Touchdown7–14
ARIQ2 7:50316Turnover7–14
CLEQ2 6:4532Field goal10–14
ARIQ2 4:331187Touchdown10–21
CLEQ2 0:2511End of half10–21
CLEQ3 15:001261Touchdown17–21
ARIQ3 8:54514Punt17–21
CLEQ3 6:1333Punt17–21
ARIQ3 4:46740Touchdown17–28
CLEQ3 1:40951Missed field goal17–28
ARIQ4 12:05865Touchdown17–35
CLEQ4 7:25126Turnover17–35
ARIQ4 7:13527Field goal17–38
CLEQ4 5:1819101Touchdown24–38
ARIQ4 1:2112End of half24–38

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield30/4324721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb171277.51
Kareem Hunt4143.50
Baker Mayfield2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.813660
Kareem Hunt89620
Damion Ratley22330
Ricky Seals-Jones34292
Jarvis Landry58230
Nick Chubb33210
Demetrius Harris12130
KhaDarel Hodge0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray19/2521911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake221376.24
Kyler Murray8567.00
Christian Kirk12828.00
David Johnson362.00
Andy Isabella1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Damiere Byrd66860
Larry Fitzgerald35420
Christian Kirk45330
Charles Clay12180
Pharoh Cooper11170
Kenyan Drake1190
Dan Arnold1161
Maxx Williams1140
Andy Isabella1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.59