Closing spread
CLE -13
Total
38
Model margin
+6.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.127
- 41.0%Success rate39.3%
- -0.082EPA / dropback-0.131
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.121
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- -2.77CPOE-5.66
- 39.6%Third-down rate32.3%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.88Points / drive1.56
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. CLE are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Tune | 11/20 | 58 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Tune | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 19/30 | 219 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 20 | 44 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 5 | 139 | 1 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.71