2023 · Week 9

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Clayton Tune

0·27

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CLE -13

Total

38

Model margin

+6.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.127
  • 41.0%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback-0.131
  • -0.014EPA / rush-0.121
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -2.77CPOE-5.66
  • 39.6%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.56
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. CLE are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W6ARI @ CLE37–14ARI
2019 · W15CLE @ ARI24–38ARI
2015 · W8ARI @ CLE34–20ARI
2011 · W15CLE @ ARI17–20ARI
2007 · W13CLE @ ARI21–27ARI
2003 · W11ARI @ CLE6–44CLE
2000 · W6CLE @ ARI21–29ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CLE
ARIQ1 15:00627Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:53740Punt0–0
ARIQ1 8:243-2Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:05620Turnover on downs0–0
ARIQ1 3:433-4Punt0–0
CLEQ1 2:01460Field goal0–3
ARIQ2 14:1530Turnover0–3
CLEQ2 13:101149Touchdown0–10
ARIQ2 6:48412Punt0–10
CLEQ2 4:2730Punt0–10
ARIQ2 3:274-2Punt0–10
CLEQ2 1:44824Field goal0–13
CLEQ3 15:0031Punt0–13
ARIQ3 13:2730Punt0–13
CLEQ3 12:2959Punt0–13
ARIQ3 9:381-8Turnover0–13
CLEQ3 9:31311Touchdown0–20
ARIQ3 8:07410Punt0–20
CLEQ3 5:3934Punt0–20
ARIQ3 3:34310Turnover0–20
CLEQ3 2:15946Missed field goal0–20
ARIQ4 12:08518Turnover on downs0–20
CLEQ4 10:01456Touchdown0–27
ARIQ4 7:483-2Punt0–27
CLEQ4 6:4934Punt0–27
ARIQ4 6:2265Punt0–27
CLEQ4 3:5132Punt0–27
ARIQ4 1:493-6End of half0–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Clayton Tune11/205802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clayton Tune5285.60
Keaontay Ingram980.90
Rondale Moore430.80
Tony Jones320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown48240
Trey McBride35220
Tony Jones2350
Rondale Moore1250
Greg Dortch1120
Zach Pascal0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson19/3021920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford20442.20
Kareem Hunt14382.71
Deshaun Watson3227.30
Pierre Strong393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper551391
Jerome Ford57330
David Njoku46261
Elijah Moore22140
Jordan Akins13110
Cedric Tillman1130
Marquise Goodwin0200
Kareem Hunt0100
Pierre Strong11-70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.34
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.71