2000 · Week 6

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

21·29

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

ARI -4.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.217EPA / play-0.126
  • 31.8%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.208EPA / dropback-0.066
  • -0.234EPA / rush-0.243
  • 5.5%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 28.6%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.04
  • 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%
  • +0.048EPA / play allowed+0.104

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. ARI are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9ARI @ CLE0–27CLE
2021 · W6ARI @ CLE37–14ARI
2019 · W15CLE @ ARI24–38ARI
2015 · W8ARI @ CLE34–20ARI
2011 · W15CLE @ ARI17–20ARI
2007 · W13CLE @ ARI21–27ARI
2003 · W11ARI @ CLE6–44CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:51632Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:2135Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:251154Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 1:5100Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 1:40524Touchdown14–0
ARIQ2 14:26542Touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 12:0034Punt14–7
ARIQ2 9:59257Touchdown14–13
CLEQ2 9:0833Punt14–13
ARIQ2 7:311349Field goal14–16
CLEQ2 1:13536Missed field goal14–16
ARIQ2 0:071-1End of half14–16
CLEQ3 15:00420Punt14–16
ARIQ3 12:22942Field goal14–19
CLEQ3 8:5538Punt14–19
ARIQ3 6:54970Touchdown14–26
CLEQ3 1:55417Punt14–26
CLEQ4 14:12324Touchdown21–26
ARIQ4 12:4334Punt21–26
CLEQ4 10:5236Punt21–26
ARIQ4 8:591237Field goal21–29
CLEQ4 3:00512Turnover on downs21–29
ARIQ4 1:4968Turnover on downs21–29

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch16/2213800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Prentice28973.53
Jamel White263.00
Tim Couch111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Northcutt35670
David Patten34270
Aaron Shea34120
Travis Prentice3370
Mark Campbell1140
Kevin Johnson1340

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer17/3017120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman161076.70
David Boston12424.00
Thomas Jones691.51
Jake Plummer7-1-0.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Sanders410762
David Boston58630
Michael Pittman22100
MarTay Jenkins2280
Chris Gedney2370
Terry Hardy1250
Thomas Jones0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.51