Closing spread
ARI -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.217EPA / play-0.126
- 31.8%Success rate39.0%
- -0.208EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.234EPA / rush-0.243
- 5.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- 28.6%Third-down rate36.7%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 0.78Points / drive1.04
- 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed+0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. ARI are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 16/22 | 138 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Prentice | 28 | 97 | 3.5 | 3 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 3 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| David Patten | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 17/30 | 171 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 16 | 107 | 6.7 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 7 | -1 | -0.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 4 | 10 | 76 | 2 |
| David Boston | 5 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Gedney | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.51