2021 · Week 6

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

37·14

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 23mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

48

Model margin

+1.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.079EPA / play+0.014
  • 46.8%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.037EPA / rush+0.015
  • 9.4%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +4.19CPOE-2.26
  • 45.2%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.37Points / drive1.81
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. CLE are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9ARI @ CLE0–27CLE
2019 · W15CLE @ ARI24–38ARI
2015 · W8ARI @ CLE34–20ARI
2011 · W15CLE @ ARI17–20ARI
2007 · W13CLE @ ARI21–27ARI
2003 · W11ARI @ CLE6–44CLE
2000 · W6CLE @ ARI21–29ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0044Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:34988Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 8:341043Turnover on downs7–0
ARIQ1 4:301550Touchdown14–0
CLEQ2 14:4922Turnover14–0
ARIQ2 13:533-5Field goal17–0
CLEQ2 13:0232Turnover17–0
ARIQ2 11:313-5Field goal20–0
CLEQ2 9:24875Touchdown20–7
ARIQ2 5:061160Field goal23–7
CLEQ2 0:43575Touchdown23–14
ARIQ3 15:0036Punt23–14
CLEQ3 12:503-8Punt23–14
ARIQ3 10:4035Punt23–14
CLEQ3 9:55632Turnover23–14
ARIQ3 6:26854Touchdown30–14
CLEQ3 2:561457Turnover on downs30–14
ARIQ4 12:061388Touchdown37–14
CLEQ4 4:4848Turnover on downs37–14
ARIQ4 3:54414End of half37–14

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray20/3022940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner16714.40
Chase Edmonds44611.50
Jonathan Ward4143.50
Rondale Moore3103.30
Kyler Murray760.90
Colt McCoy3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green56791
Christian Kirk58751
DeAndre Hopkins34552
Rondale Moore34160
Chase Edmonds3440
Darrell Daniels0100
James Conner1100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield19/2823421
Case Keenum1/3600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt14664.70
Baker Mayfield382.70
D'Ernest Johnson122.00
Anthony Schwartz1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donovan Peoples-Jones451012
Odell Beckham Jr.58790
Demetric Felton22140
Kareem Hunt33120
Anthony Schwartz23110
D'Ernest Johnson1170
David Njoku1260
Johnny Stanton1160
Austin Hooper1340
Rashard Higgins0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.80