Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
48
Model margin
+1.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play+0.014
- 46.8%Success rate43.7%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.037EPA / rush+0.015
- 9.4%Explosive rate11.2%
- +4.19CPOE-2.26
- 45.2%Third-down rate39.1%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.37Points / drive1.81
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. CLE are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 20/30 | 229 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 6 | 79 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 5 | 8 | 75 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 4 | 55 | 2 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/28 | 234 | 2 | 1 |
| Case Keenum | 1/3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 4 | 5 | 101 | 2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Johnny Stanton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.80