Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
46
Model margin
-2.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play-0.074
- 47.7%Success rate41.1%
- +0.260EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.179
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.0%
- +4.51CPOE-0.75
- 47.4%Third-down rate41.6%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
- 2.34Points / drive1.32
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. CLE are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 23/38 | 374 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 30 | 109 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 4 | 8 | 106 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 11 | 84 | 1 |
| J.J. Nelson | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 2 | 2 | 12 | 2 |
| Chris Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 18/34 | 211 | 3 | 1 |
| Johnny Manziel | 3/6 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 10 | 14 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Johnny Manziel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 2 | 68 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 7 | 11 | 53 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 10 | 32 | 2 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-2.15