2015 · Week 8

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

34·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Josh McCown

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 21mph

Closing spread

ARI -7

Total

46

Model margin

-2.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.133EPA / play-0.074
  • 47.7%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.260EPA / dropback-0.025
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.179
  • 10.8%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +4.51CPOE-0.75
  • 47.4%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.32
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. CLE are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9ARI @ CLE0–27CLE
2021 · W6ARI @ CLE37–14ARI
2019 · W15CLE @ ARI24–38ARI
2011 · W15CLE @ ARI17–20ARI
2007 · W13CLE @ ARI21–27ARI
2003 · W11ARI @ CLE6–44CLE
2000 · W6CLE @ ARI21–29ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CLE
ARIQ1 15:001182Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 7:5956Punt7–0
ARIQ1 5:34528Turnover7–0
CLEQ1 3:3639Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 2:4133Punt7–7
CLEQ1 1:53666Touchdown7–14
ARIQ2 14:4859Punt7–14
CLEQ2 12:281469Touchdown7–20
ARIQ2 4:561167Turnover7–20
CLEQ2 1:3236Punt7–20
ARIQ2 0:24336Field goal10–20
CLEQ3 15:0033Punt10–20
ARIQ3 13:50471Touchdown17–20
CLEQ3 11:4655Punt17–20
ARIQ3 9:25448Touchdown24–20
CLEQ3 7:35618Punt24–20
ARIQ3 4:15415Turnover24–20
CLEQ3 2:1438Punt24–20
ARIQ3 1:11316Turnover24–20
CLEQ3 0:2026Turnover24–20
ARIQ4 14:521480Touchdown31–20
CLEQ4 9:32645Turnover31–20
ARIQ4 7:331238Field goal34–20
CLEQ4 2:16713Turnover on downs34–20
ARIQ4 1:0500End of half34–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer23/3837441

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson301093.60
Carson Palmer362.00
David Johnson144.00
Andre Ellington300.00
J.J. Nelson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Floyd481061
Larry Fitzgerald911841
J.J. Nelson34700
David Johnson22440
Jaron Brown14390
Jermaine Gresham24190
Troy Niklas22122
Chris Johnson0100
Andre Ellington0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown18/3421131
Johnny Manziel3/61200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh McCown5183.60
Isaiah Crowell10141.40
Robert Turbin331.00
Duke Johnson133.00
Johnny Manziel111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duke Johnson22680
Gary Barnidge711531
Brian Hartline410322
Taylor Gabriel47320
Travis Benjamin35260
Isaiah Crowell12120
Dwayne Bowe0100
Jim Dray0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.70%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-2.15