2007 · Week 13

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

21·27

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

ARI -1

Total

52

Model margin

+3.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.013EPA / play-0.037
  • 42.4%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.116
  • 10.4%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -2.23CPOE+0.38
  • 42.7%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.68
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. ARI are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9ARI @ CLE0–27CLE
2021 · W6ARI @ CLE37–14ARI
2019 · W15CLE @ ARI24–38ARI
2015 · W8ARI @ CLE34–20ARI
2011 · W15CLE @ ARI17–20ARI
2003 · W11ARI @ CLE6–44CLE
2000 · W6CLE @ ARI21–29ARI

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson21/4130422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis16623.90
Derek Anderson2105.00
Jason Wright199.00
Josh Cribbs111.00

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner18/3016921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James241144.80
J.J. Arrington2199.50
Kurt Warner100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.11