Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
52
Model margin
+3.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.037
- 42.4%Success rate42.9%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.116
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- -2.23CPOE+0.38
- 42.7%Third-down rate36.9%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 1.84Points / drive1.68
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. ARI are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 30 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 10:45 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 8:37 | 8 | 33 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| CLE | Q1 4:59 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| ARI | Q1 1:41 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CLE | Q2 13:33 | 6 | 34 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| ARI | Q2 9:22 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CLE | Q2 7:15 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| ARI | Q2 1:14 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| CLE | Q2 0:30 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 10–14 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 49 | Punt | 10–14 |
| CLE | Q3 10:00 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 10–14 |
| ARI | Q3 7:03 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 10–14 |
| ARI | Q3 3:46 | 9 | 30 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| CLE | Q3 0:43 | 2 | 69 | Touchdown | 18–21 |
| ARI | Q4 15:00 | 6 | 35 | Field goal | 18–24 |
| CLE | Q4 12:10 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 18–24 |
| ARI | Q4 11:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 18–24 |
| CLE | Q4 9:16 | 5 | 49 | Field goal | 21–24 |
| ARI | Q4 6:17 | 11 | 59 | Field goal | 21–27 |
| CLE | Q4 1:48 | 9 | 45 | Turnover on downs | 21–27 |
| ARI | Q4 0:00 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 21/41 | 304 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 18/30 | 169 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 24 | 114 | 4.8 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.11