Closing spread
ARI -6
Total
37
Model margin
+3.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.077
- 40.3%Success rate41.4%
- -0.059EPA / dropback-0.076
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.078
- 5.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- -4.62CPOE-5.82
- 38.1%Third-down rate32.0%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 1.09Points / drive1.38
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. ARI are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 18/31 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 26 | 99 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Seneca Wallace | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 5 | 9 | 131 | 1 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 28/46 | 313 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| John Skelton | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 7 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 6 | 10 | 60 | 1 |
| Early Doucet | 3 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.20
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.10