2011 · Week 15

Final / OT

Browns

Cleveland

QB Seneca Wallace

17·20

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -6

Total

37

Model margin

+3.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.091EPA / play-0.077
  • 40.3%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback-0.076
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.078
  • 5.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -4.62CPOE-5.82
  • 38.1%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.38
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. ARI are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9ARI @ CLE0–27CLE
2021 · W6ARI @ CLE37–14ARI
2019 · W15CLE @ ARI24–38ARI
2015 · W8ARI @ CLE34–20ARI
2007 · W13CLE @ ARI21–27ARI
2003 · W11ARI @ CLE6–44CLE
2000 · W6CLE @ ARI21–29ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–ARI
CLEQ1 15:00776Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 11:33615Punt7–0
CLEQ1 8:5836Punt7–0
ARIQ1 7:58833Punt7–0
CLEQ1 3:521454Field goal10–0
ARIQ2 11:33822Punt10–0
CLEQ2 6:13725Punt10–0
ARIQ2 1:49965Touchdown10–7
CLEQ2 0:1900End of half10–7
ARIQ3 15:00612Punt10–7
CLEQ3 12:15419Punt10–7
ARIQ3 10:07744Punt10–7
CLEQ3 6:22688Touchdown17–7
ARIQ3 3:01421Turnover17–7
CLEQ3 1:04519Punt17–7
ARIQ4 13:221185Touchdown17–14
CLEQ4 8:333-14Turnover17–14
ARIQ4 7:003-10Field goal17–17
CLEQ4 5:40536Punt17–17
ARIQ4 3:16831Punt17–17
CLEQ4 1:1036Punt17–17
ARIQ4 0:4339Punt17–17
CLEOT519Punt17–17
ARIOT336Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace18/3122610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis26993.81
Seneca Wallace3217.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little591311
Mohamed Massaquoi35420
Jordan Norwood36210
Alex Smith1390
Peyton Hillis1390
Jordan Cameron3380
Josh Cribbs1130
Chris Ogbonnaya1130

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton28/4631311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells15513.41
Andre Roberts177.00
John Skelton273.50
LaRod Stephens-Howling362.00
Chester Taylor231.50
Alfonso Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Heap79690
Larry Fitzgerald38650
Andre Roberts610601
Early Doucet39370
Jeff King11240
LaRod Stephens-Howling22180
Chester Taylor34170
Chris Wells11100
Chansi Stuckey1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.20
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.10