Closing spread
CLE -5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play-0.100
- 39.4%Success rate43.0%
- -0.108EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.236EPA / rush-0.144
- 7.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- 37.2%Third-down rate37.1%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate47.9%
- 0.93Points / drive1.31
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.075EPA / play allowed-0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. CLE are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 38 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 9:06 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CLE | Q1 6:47 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q1 2:57 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CLE | Q1 1:53 | 11 | 64 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| ARI | Q2 11:16 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CLE | Q2 9:36 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| ARI | Q2 4:14 | 7 | 33 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| CLE | Q2 0:55 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 3–20 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 3–20 |
| CLE | Q3 13:04 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–20 |
| ARI | Q3 11:30 | 4 | 57 | Field goal | 6–20 |
| CLE | Q3 9:55 | 5 | 47 | Touchdown | 6–27 |
| ARI | Q3 6:59 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–27 |
| CLE | Q3 5:00 | 4 | 86 | Touchdown | 6–34 |
| ARI | Q3 2:56 | 5 | 27 | Turnover | 6–34 |
| CLE | Q3 0:59 | 5 | 40 | Touchdown | 6–41 |
| ARI | Q4 14:20 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 6–41 |
| CLE | Q4 12:29 | 6 | 47 | Field goal | 6–44 |
| ARI | Q4 8:57 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 6–44 |
| CLE | Q4 6:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–44 |
| ARI | Q4 4:47 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 6–44 |
| CLE | Q4 4:09 | 4 | 17 | End of half | 6–44 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 9/21 | 121 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 4/11 | 31 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 29/35 | 392 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 19 | 45 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Lee Suggs | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.87