2003 · Week 11

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jeff Blake

6·44

Browns

Cleveland

QB Kelly Holcomb

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CLE -5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.154EPA / play-0.100
  • 39.4%Success rate43.0%
  • -0.108EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.236EPA / rush-0.144
  • 7.0%Explosive rate6.8%
  • 37.2%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate47.9%
  • 0.93Points / drive1.31
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.075EPA / play allowed-0.010

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. CLE are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9ARI @ CLE0–27CLE
2021 · W6ARI @ CLE37–14ARI
2019 · W15CLE @ ARI24–38ARI
2015 · W8ARI @ CLE34–20ARI
2011 · W15CLE @ ARI17–20ARI
2007 · W13CLE @ ARI21–27ARI
2000 · W6CLE @ ARI21–29ARI

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake9/2112101
Josh McCown4/113102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcel Shipp9232.60
Josh McCown294.50
Anquan Boldin166.00
Jeff Blake133.00

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kelly Holcomb29/3539230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Jackson19452.42
Jamel White4276.80
Dennis Northcutt2147.00
Lee Suggs551.00
Kelly Holcomb3-2-0.70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.87