AFC East · 2020
Buffalo Bills
Record
13-3
Seed
#2
Net EPA
+0.165est.
Efficiency
How this team plays
Percentile against the teams that played this season, computed from play-by-play.
Offence
Higher is better.
- EPA / play+0.169
- Success rate50.4%
- EPA / dropback+0.298
- EPA / rush-0.081
- Explosive rate10.7%
- CPOE+6.29
- Third-down rate49.9%
- Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- Points / drive2.78
- Turnover rate1.9%
← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →
Defence
Oriented so that further right is always better.
- EPA / play allowed+0.035
- Success rate allowed47.6%
- EPA / dropback allowed+0.065
- EPA / rush allowed-0.018
- Explosive rate allowed9.1%
- Pressure rate (proxy)18.9%
- Sack rate5.7%
- Points / drive allowed2.16
← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →
Offensive EPA / play — league shape+0.169 · 89th %ile
Defensive EPA / play allowed — league shape (left is better)+0.035 · 45th %ile
Form
The shape of the season
Rolling four-week EPA per play. The aggregate hides collapses and surges; this shows them.
4-week rolling EPA/play — up is good for both lines.
- Offense
- Defense (prevented)
Betting profile
Against the number
Settled against closing lines. Descriptive, not predictive.
ATS
11-5
+5.7 vs line
Home
6-2
Away
5-3
As favorite
7-4
As dog
4-1
O/U
10-4-2
+6.4 vs total
Roster
79 players
48 active. Skill players link through to their fantasy page.
Quarterbacks4
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matt Barkley | QB | 31 | 6'2" 234 | 7 | Southern California | ACT |
| 7 | Davis Webb | QB | 25 | 6'5" 225 | 3 | California | DEV |
| 10 | Jake Fromm | QB | 22 | 6'2" 222 | R | Georgia | INA |
| 17 | Josh Allen | QB | 24 | 6'5" 237 | 2 | Wyoming | ACT |
Backs & receivers23
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cole Beasley | WR | 31 | 5'8" 174 | 8 | Southern Methodist | ACT |
| 13 | Gabriel Davis | WR | 21 | 6'2" 213 | R | Central Florida | ACT |
| 14 | Stefon Diggs | WR | 28 | 6'0" 191 | 5 | Maryland | ACT |
| 15 | John Brown | WR | 30 | 5'11" 179 | 6 | Pittsburg State | ACT |
| 16 | Isaiah Hodgins | WR | 23 | 6'3" 209 | R | Oregon State | RES |
| 18 | Andre Roberts | WR | 32 | 5'11" 195 | 10 | Citadel | ACT |
| 19 | Isaiah McKenzie | WR | 25 | 5'8" 173 | 3 | Georgia | ACT |
| 19 | Tanner Gentry | WR | 27 | 6'2" 193 | 3 | Wyoming | DEV |
| 20 | Zack Moss | RB | 24 | 5'9" 215 | R | Utah | RES |
| 22 | T.J. Yeldon | RB | 28 | 6'1" 223 | 5 | Alabama | ACT |
| 25 | Taiwan Jones | RB | 32 | 6'0" 195 | 9 | Eastern Washington | ACT |
| 26 | Devin Singletary | RB | 24 | 5'7" 203 | 1 | Florida Atlantic | ACT |
| 31 | Devonta Freeman | RB | 28 | 5'8" 206 | 6 | Florida State | DEV |
| 35 | Antonio Williams | RB | 24 | 5'11" 210 | R | North Carolina | DEV |
| 45 | Christian Wade | RB | 29 | 5'9" 196 | 1 | No College | DEV |
| 80 | Kenny Stills | WR | 28 | 6'1" 202 | 7 | Oklahoma | INA |
| 81 | Tyler Kroft | TE | 29 | 6'6" 250 | 5 | Rutgers | INA |
| 82 | Duke Williams | WR | 27 | 6'3" 225 | 4 | Auburn | DEV |
| 84 | Nate Becker | TE | 24 | 6'5" 264 | 1 | Miami, O. | DEV |
| 85 | Lee Smith | TE | 34 | 6'6" 265 | 9 | Marshall | ACT |
| 86 | Reggie Gilliam | TE | 23 | 6'0" 255 | R | Toledo | ACT |
| 88 | Dawson Knox | TE | 25 | 6'4" 254 | 1 | Mississippi | ACT |
| 89 | Tommy Sweeney | TE | 25 | 6'5" 251 | 1 | Boston College | RES |
Offensive line12
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | Mitch Morse | OL | 28 | 6'6" 305 | 5 | Missouri | ACT |
| 65 | Ike Boettger | OL | 27 | 6'6" 318 | 2 | Iowa | ACT |
| 66 | Brian Winters | OL | 29 | 6'4" 320 | 7 | Kent State | ACT |
| 68 | Jordan Devey | OL | 32 | 6'6" 320 | 7 | Memphis | INA |
| 70 | Cody Ford | OL | 25 | 6'3" 329 | 1 | Oklahoma | RES |
| 71 | Ryan Bates | OL | 23 | 6'4" 300 | 1 | Penn State | ACT |
| 72 | Trey Adams | OL | 23 | 6'8" 327 | R | Washington | DEV |
| 73 | Dion Dawkins | OL | 26 | 6'5" 320 | 3 | Temple | ACT |
| 75 | Daryl Williams | OL | 28 | 6'6" 330 | 5 | Oklahoma | ACT |
| 76 | Jon Feliciano | OL | 28 | 6'4" 323 | 5 | Miami | ACT |
| 77 | Ty Nsekhe | OL | 36 | 6'8" 330 | 8 | Texas State | ACT |
| 78 | Jonotthan Harrison | OL | 29 | 6'4" 300 | 6 | Florida | DEV |
Defensive front22
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | Del'Shawn Phillips | LB | 25 | 6'2" 230 | 1 | Illinois | CUT |
| 44 | Tyler Matakevich | LB | 29 | 6'1" 235 | 4 | Temple | ACT |
| 49 | Tremaine Edmunds | LB | 22 | 6'5" 250 | 2 | Virginia Tech | ACT |
| 51 | Bryan Cox | DL | 26 | 6'3" 270 | 3 | Florida | DEV |
| 52 | Darron Lee | LB | 27 | 6'1" 232 | 4 | Ohio State | DEV |
| 53 | Tyrel Dodson | LB | 22 | 6'0" 237 | 1 | Texas A&M | INA |
| 54 | A.J. Klein | LB | 29 | 6'1" 240 | 7 | Iowa State | ACT |
| 55 | Jerry Hughes | DL | 32 | 6'2" 254 | 10 | Texas Christian | ACT |
| 56 | Mike Love | DL | 26 | 6'3" 255 | 2 | South Florida | DEV |
| 57 | A.J. Epenesa | DL | 23 | 6'6" 280 | R | Iowa | ACT |
| 58 | Matt Milano | LB | 26 | 6'0" 223 | 3 | Boston College | ACT |
| 59 | Andre Smith | LB | 23 | 6'0" 240 | 2 | North Carolina | ACT |
| 61 | Justin Zimmer | DL | 29 | 6'3" 292 | 4 | Ferris State | ACT |
| 74 | Brandin Bryant | DL | 28 | 6'2" 294 | 4 | Florida Atlantic | DEV |
| 90 | Quinton Jefferson | DL | 27 | 6'4" 291 | 4 | Maryland | ACT |
| 91 | Ed Oliver | DL | 24 | 6'1" 287 | 1 | Houston | ACT |
| 92 | Darryl Johnson | DL | 23 | 6'6" 253 | 1 | North Carolina A&T | ACT |
| 93 | Trent Murphy | DL | 31 | 6'6" 259 | 6 | Stanford | INA |
| 94 | Vernon Butler | DL | 26 | 6'4" 330 | 4 | Louisiana Tech | ACT |
| 97 | Mario Addison | DL | 34 | 6'3" 260 | 9 | Troy | ACT |
| 98 | Star Lotulelei | DL | 32 | 6'2" 318 | 7 | Utah | RES |
| 99 | Harrison Phillips | DL | 24 | 6'3" 307 | 2 | Stanford | ACT |
Secondary14
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Duke Thomas | DB | 26 | 5'11" 184 | 4 | Texas | CUT |
| 21 | Jordan Poyer | DB | 29 | 6'0" 191 | 7 | Oregon State | ACT |
| 23 | Micah Hyde | DB | 31 | 6'0" 197 | 7 | Iowa | ACT |
| 24 | Taron Johnson | DB | 24 | 5'11" 192 | 2 | Weber State | ACT |
| 27 | Tre'Davious White | DB | 25 | 5'11" 192 | 3 | Louisiana State | ACT |
| 28 | E.J. Gaines | DB | 28 | 5'10" 185 | 6 | Missouri | RES |
| 29 | Josh Norman | DB | 34 | 6'0" 200 | 8 | Coastal Carolina | ACT |
| 30 | Dane Jackson | DB | 25 | 5'11" 185 | R | Pittsburgh | INA |
| 31 | Dean Marlowe | DB | 28 | 6'1" 208 | 5 | James Madison | ACT |
| 33 | Siran Neal | DB | 26 | 6'0" 205 | 2 | Jacksonville State | ACT |
| 36 | Josh Thomas | DB | 25 | 6'0" 205 | R | Appalachian State | DEV |
| 39 | Levi Wallace | DB | 25 | 6'0" 179 | 2 | Alabama | ACT |
| 46 | Jaquan Johnson | DB | 26 | 5'10" 190 | 1 | Miami | ACT |
| 47 | Cameron Lewis | DB | 23 | 5'9" 185 | 1 | Buffalo | RES |
Specialists4
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tyler Bass | K | 23 | 5'10" 185 | R | Georgia Southern | ACT |
| 7 | Tristan Vizcaino | K | 24 | 6'2" 205 | 1 | Washington | DEV |
| 9 | Corey Bojorquez | P | 25 | 6'0" 208 | 2 | New Mexico | ACT |
| 69 | Reid Ferguson | LS | 26 | 6'2" 235 | 4 | Louisiana State | ACT |
Schedule
19 games
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Spread | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Jets | W 27-17 | -6.5 | +0.097 |
| 2 | @ Dolphins | W 31-28 | -5.5 | +0.383 |
| 3 | vs Rams | W 35-32 | -1.5 | +0.185 |
| 4 | @ Raiders | W 30-23 | -3 | +0.223 |
| 5 | @ Titans | L 16-42 | -3 | +0.030 |
| 6 | vs Chiefs | L 17-26 | +5.5 | +0.065 |
| 7 | @ Jets | W 18-10 | -9.5 | +0.099 |
| 8 | vs Patriots | W 24-21 | -4 | +0.147 |
| 9 | vs Seahawks | W 44-34 | +3 | +0.237 |
| 10 | @ Cardinals | L 30-32 | +3 | -0.008 |
| 12 | vs Chargers | W 27-17 | -4.5 | +0.011 |
| 13 | @ 49ers | W 34-24 | +1.5 | +0.232 |
| 14 | vs Steelers | W 26-15 | -2 | -0.014 |
| 15 | @ Broncos | W 48-19 | -5.5 | +0.395 |
| 16 | @ Patriots | W 38-9 | -7 | +0.403 |
| 17 | vs Dolphins | W 56-26 | +3.5 | +0.252 |
| WC | vs Colts | W 27-24 | -7 | +0.200 |
| DIV | vs Ravens | W 17-3 | -2.5 | -0.104 |
| CON | @ Chiefs | L 24-38 | +3 | +0.043 |