2023 · Week 8

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

38·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -2

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapColts
  • -0.015EPA / play-0.025
  • 42.2%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.108
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +1.94CPOE-3.92
  • 39.4%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.78
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 6–2 since 1999

NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. IND are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W15IND @ NO7–34NO
2015 · W7NO @ IND27–21NO
2011 · W7IND @ NO7–62NO
2009 · playoffsNO @ IND31–17NO
2007 · W1NO @ IND10–41IND
2003 · W4IND @ NO55–21IND
2001 · W10IND @ NO20–34NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–IND
INDQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:19523Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:15781Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 6:56775Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 3:44945Field goal7–10
NOQ2 14:4930Turnover7–10
INDQ2 14:15724Touchdown7–17
NOQ2 11:39875Touchdown14–17
INDQ2 7:2845Punt14–17
NOQ2 6:24263Touchdown21–17
INDQ2 5:421251Field goal21–20
NOQ2 0:2100End of half21–20
NOQ3 15:00619Punt21–20
INDQ3 11:47311Punt21–20
NOQ3 9:25519Punt21–20
INDQ3 7:24764Turnover21–20
NOQ3 3:44771Touchdown28–20
INDQ3 0:0734Punt28–20
NOQ4 14:42880Touchdown35–20
INDQ4 10:49760Touchdown35–27
NOQ4 8:19619Punt35–27
INDQ4 5:22616Punt35–27
NOQ4 3:48868Field goal38–27
INDQ4 0:2434End of half38–27

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr19/2731020
Taysom Hill1/24400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taysom Hill9637.02
Alvin Kamara17593.51
Jamaal Williams6305.00
Kendre Miller3103.30
Derek Carr1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashid Shaheed331531
Michael Thomas47680
Alvin Kamara45511
Chris Olave59460
Taysom Hill11140
Kendre Miller1190
Jamaal Williams1180
Juwan Johnson1250

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew23/4121321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor12957.90
Zack Moss11666.01
Gardner Minshew133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Downs79720
Alec Pierce35410
Michael Pittman813401
Andrew Ogletree13331
Mo Alie-Cox12110
Zack Moss1180
Will Mallory1260
Jonathan Taylor1220
Juwann Winfree0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.39