Closing spread
NO -2
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play-0.025
- 42.2%Success rate41.5%
- +0.052EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.108
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.94CPOE-3.92
- 39.4%Third-down rate34.4%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.82Points / drive1.78
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–2 since 1999
NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. IND are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 19/27 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/2 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 3 | 153 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| Chris Olave | 5 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 23/41 | 213 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 12 | 95 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 7 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 13 | 40 | 1 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Juwann Winfree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.39