Closing spread
NO -13.5
Total
49
Model margin
+7.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.198
- 39.3%Success rate51.4%
- -0.096EPA / dropback+0.305
- -0.182EPA / rush+0.014
- 6.8%Explosive rate10.8%
- -4.66CPOE+7.27
- 34.4%Third-down rate58.6%
- 47.1%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.05Points / drive2.96
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–2 since 1999
NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. NO are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Painter | 9/17 | 67 | 0 | 1 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 3/5 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delone Carter | 10 | 89 | 8.9 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Curtis Painter | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 31/35 | 325 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 91 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 7 | 7 | 98 | 2 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 7 | 54 | 2 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 6 | 19 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.57