2011 · Week 7

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Curtis Painter

7·62

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -13.5

Total

49

Model margin

+7.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapSaints
  • -0.129EPA / play+0.198
  • 39.3%Success rate51.4%
  • -0.096EPA / dropback+0.305
  • -0.182EPA / rush+0.014
  • 6.8%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -4.66CPOE+7.27
  • 34.4%Third-down rate58.6%
  • 47.1%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.05Points / drive2.96
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 6–2 since 1999

NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. NO are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8NO @ IND38–27NO
2019 · W15IND @ NO7–34NO
2015 · W7NO @ IND27–21NO
2009 · playoffsNO @ IND31–17NO
2007 · W1NO @ IND10–41IND
2003 · W4IND @ NO55–21IND
2001 · W10IND @ NO20–34NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NO
INDQ1 15:00620Turnover0–0
NOQ1 12:01641Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 9:02523Punt0–7
NOQ1 7:10677Touchdown0–14
INDQ1 5:31332Turnover0–14
NOQ1 4:24852Touchdown0–21
INDQ1 0:4230Punt0–21
NOQ2 14:30769Touchdown0–28
INDQ2 10:3930Punt0–28
NOQ2 9:481048Field goal0–31
INDQ2 4:20780Touchdown7–31
NOQ2 1:56652Field goal7–34
NOQ3 15:001170Touchdown7–41
INDQ3 9:16318Punt7–41
NOQ3 7:461170Touchdown7–48
INDQ3 1:4131Punt7–48
NOQ3 0:24658Touchdown7–55
INDQ4 12:2610Opp touchdown7–62
INDQ4 12:121043Punt7–62
NOQ4 6:41520Punt7–62
INDQ4 2:44435End of half7–62

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Curtis Painter9/176701
Dan Orlovsky3/53500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Delone Carter10898.91
Donald Brown9475.20
Curtis Painter2115.50
Joseph Addai284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne34360
Pierre Garcon36310
Austin Collie25120
Brody Eldridge23120
Joseph Addai22110

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees31/3532550

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram14916.50
Darren Sproles12887.31
Pierre Thomas10575.70
Robert Meachem1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston77982
Pierre Thomas56680
Jimmy Graham67542
Lance Moore34440
Robert Meachem22270
Darren Sproles66191
Devery Henderson1290
Mark Ingram1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.8%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.57