Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.009
- 46.3%Success rate42.3%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 42.2%Third-down rate46.4%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 2.34Points / drive1.71
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.000EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–2 since 1999
NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. NO are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/25 | 314 | 6 | 0 |
| Brock Huard | 1/2 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brock Huard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/28 | 166 | 0 | 2 |
| Todd Bouman | 5/8 | 62 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 17 | 101 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| James Fenderson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| John Carney | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.40