Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.005EPA / play-0.068
- 45.6%Success rate38.2%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.203
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- 41.4%Third-down rate38.8%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.62Points / drive1.58
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.059EPA / play allowed+0.009
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–2 since 1999
NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. NO are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 18/28 | 262 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 3 | 126 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 6 | 10 | 55 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Trevor Insley | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 19/22 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 28 | 120 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Albert Connell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 8 | 9 | 148 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 3 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.13