2009 · SB

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

31·17

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

IND -4.5

Total

56.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapColts
  • +0.118EPA / play+0.127
  • 48.1%Success rate48.9%
  • +0.231EPA / dropback+0.241
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.077
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +6.47CPOE+4.60
  • 45.6%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.29
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 6–2 since 1999

NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. IND are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8NO @ IND38–27NO
2019 · W15IND @ NO7–34NO
2015 · W7NO @ IND27–21NO
2011 · W7IND @ NO7–62NO
2007 · W1NO @ IND10–41IND
2003 · W4IND @ NO55–21IND
2001 · W10IND @ NO20–34NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–IND
NOQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:221058Field goal0–3
NOQ1 7:29624Punt0–3
INDQ1 5:121196Touchdown0–10
NOQ1 0:361045Field goal3–10
INDQ2 9:3436Punt3–10
NOQ2 8:141276Turnover on downs3–10
INDQ2 1:4939Punt3–10
NOQ2 0:35326Field goal6–10
INDQ3 15:0000Touchdown6–10
NOQ3 14:59658Touchdown13–10
INDQ3 11:411076Touchdown13–17
NOQ3 6:15737Field goal16–17
INDQ3 2:011156Missed field goal16–17
NOQ4 10:39959Touchdown24–17
INDQ4 5:42744Opp touchdown31–17
INDQ4 3:121087Turnover on downs31–17
NOQ4 0:4400End of half31–17

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees32/3928820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas9303.30
Reggie Bush5255.00
Mike Bell242.00
Drew Brees1-1-1.00
Devery Henderson1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston79830
Devery Henderson77630
Pierre Thomas67551
Reggie Bush45380
Lance Moore22210
Jeremy Shockey34131
David Thomas1190
Robert Meachem2360

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning31/4533311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai13775.91
Donald Brown4184.50
Mike Hart242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Clark79860
Pierre Garcon57661
Austin Collie69660
Joseph Addai77580
Reggie Wayne511460
Donald Brown12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.03