Closing spread
IND -4.5
Total
56.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.127
- 48.1%Success rate48.9%
- +0.231EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.077
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- +6.47CPOE+4.60
- 45.6%Third-down rate48.9%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 2.36Points / drive2.29
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–2 since 1999
NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. IND are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 32/39 | 288 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 7 | 9 | 83 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 7 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/45 | 333 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Clark | 7 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Austin Collie | 6 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 7 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.03