Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.139
- 47.6%Success rate48.8%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.101EPA / rush+0.025
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- +4.63CPOE+1.87
- 46.0%Third-down rate49.3%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.69Points / drive2.49
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–2 since 1999
NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. IND are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:37 | 12 | 46 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:08 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 1:36 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 0:24 | 7 | 37 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| IND | Q2 11:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:21 | 8 | 36 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 6:26 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NO | Q2 4:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 2:24 | 7 | 70 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| NO | Q2 0:45 | 3 | 16 | End of half | 10–10 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–10 |
| IND | Q3 13:52 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| NO | Q3 9:45 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–17 |
| IND | Q3 8:05 | 4 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| NO | Q3 6:11 | 10 | 35 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| IND | Q3 0:30 | 4 | 32 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| NO | Q4 14:12 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–27 |
| IND | Q4 12:50 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–34 |
| NO | Q4 10:05 | 6 | 30 | Turnover | 10–34 |
| IND | Q4 8:05 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 10–34 |
| NO | Q4 4:26 | 12 | 54 | Opp touchdown | 10–41 |
| NO | Q4 0:55 | 4 | 40 | End of half | 10–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/41 | 192 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 18/30 | 288 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 23 | 118 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Kenton Keith | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17