Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.139
- 47.6%Success rate48.8%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.101EPA / rush+0.025
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- +4.63CPOE+1.87
- 46.0%Third-down rate49.3%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.69Points / drive2.49
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–2 since 1999
NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. IND are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/41 | 192 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 18/30 | 288 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 23 | 118 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Kenton Keith | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17