Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.080EPA / play-0.083
- 44.6%Success rate40.1%
- +0.161EPA / dropback-0.023
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.206
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.0%
- +2.78CPOE-4.10
- 48.9%Third-down rate40.5%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.09Points / drive1.47
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–2 since 1999
NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. IND are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/44 | 255 | 1 | 1 |
| Luke McCown | 1/1 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 143 | 10.2 | 1 |
| Khiry Robinson | 14 | 28 | 2.0 | 2 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 13 | 81 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 6 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 23/44 | 333 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 15 | 150 | 2 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 5 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.72