2015 · Week 7

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

27·21

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -5.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapColts
  • +0.080EPA / play-0.083
  • 44.6%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback-0.023
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.206
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +2.78CPOE-4.10
  • 48.9%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.47
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 6–2 since 1999

NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. IND are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8NO @ IND38–27NO
2019 · W15IND @ NO7–34NO
2011 · W7IND @ NO7–62NO
2009 · playoffsNO @ IND31–17NO
2007 · W1NO @ IND10–41IND
2003 · W4IND @ NO55–21IND
2001 · W10IND @ NO20–34NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–IND
NOQ1 15:0046Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:5337Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:18926Punt0–0
INDQ1 7:1439Punt0–0
NOQ1 6:021078Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 2:3110Turnover7–0
NOQ1 2:16828Touchdown14–0
INDQ2 14:5600Touchdown14–0
NOQ2 14:47327Touchdown20–0
INDQ2 13:36522Punt20–0
NOQ2 11:56428Punt20–0
INDQ2 9:14733Punt20–0
NOQ2 6:42982Turnover20–0
INDQ2 3:2234Punt20–0
NOQ2 1:443-5Punt20–0
INDQ2 0:59856Turnover20–0
NOQ2 0:0200End of half20–0
INDQ3 15:0035Punt20–0
NOQ3 13:23682Touchdown27–0
INDQ3 10:2671Punt27–0
NOQ3 6:39516Punt27–0
INDQ3 4:02287Touchdown27–7
NOQ3 3:4259Punt27–7
INDQ3 1:25351Touchdown27–14
NOQ3 0:0134Punt27–14
INDQ4 13:1835Punt27–14
NOQ4 12:283-2Punt27–14
INDQ4 10:34414Punt27–14
NOQ4 9:26644Punt27–14
INDQ4 6:4042Punt27–14
NOQ4 5:013-1Punt27–14
INDQ4 3:59780Touchdown27–21
NOQ4 3:05431End of half27–21

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees28/4425511
Luke McCown1/12500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram1414310.21
Khiry Robinson14282.02
C.J. Spiller4164.00
Drew Brees4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks613810
Benjamin Watson45590
C.J. Spiller66320
Michael Hoomanawanui55311
Willie Snead37250
Brandon Coleman11240
Marques Colston13200
Mark Ingram2250
Khiry Robinson1130
Josh Hill0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck23/4433332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore9434.80
Andrew Luck3279.00
Ahmad Bradshaw155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton4151502
Coby Fleener35470
Andre Johnson44440
Donte Moncrief46341
Frank Gore58320
Dwayne Allen11100
Ahmad Bradshaw1280
Phillip Dorsett1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.72