Closing spread
NO -8
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.084
- 44.5%Success rate47.0%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.172
- +0.022EPA / rush-0.067
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.3%
- -3.86CPOE+3.92
- 41.9%Third-down rate43.9%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.94Points / drive2.45
- 1.8%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–2 since 1999
NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. NO are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 18/34 | 165 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 11 | 19 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Pascal | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/30 | 307 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 12 | 12 | 128 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.56