2019 · Week 15

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

7·34

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -8

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapSaints
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.084
  • 44.5%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.172
  • +0.022EPA / rush-0.067
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -3.86CPOE+3.92
  • 41.9%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.94Points / drive2.45
  • 1.8%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 6–2 since 1999

NO have won 5 straight. Meetings average 56.5 points. NO are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8NO @ IND38–27NO
2015 · W7NO @ IND27–21NO
2011 · W7IND @ NO7–62NO
2009 · playoffsNO @ IND31–17NO
2007 · W1NO @ IND10–41IND
2003 · W4IND @ NO55–21IND
2001 · W10IND @ NO20–34NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NO
INDQ1 15:00733Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:03523Field goal0–3
INDQ1 7:28736Punt0–3
NOQ1 3:541385Touchdown0–10
INDQ2 12:3730Punt0–10
NOQ2 12:201275Touchdown0–17
INDQ2 6:11817Punt0–17
NOQ2 3:021090Field goal0–20
NOQ3 15:001275Touchdown0–27
INDQ3 7:081131Turnover on downs0–27
NOQ3 1:58351Touchdown0–34
INDQ3 0:3539Punt0–34
NOQ4 14:1030Punt0–34
INDQ4 12:20421Punt0–34
NOQ4 9:3538Punt0–34
INDQ4 7:171358Touchdown7–34
NOQ4 3:56320End of half7–34

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett18/3416500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack11191.70
Nyheim Hines2105.00
Jordan Wilkins3103.31
Jacoby Brissett177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Pascal46440
Marcus Johnson24370
Dontrelle Inman23250
T.Y. Hilton49250
Jack Doyle25210
Jordan Wilkins1370
Ashton Dulin1140
Nyheim Hines2220

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/3030740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara14664.70
Latavius Murray9293.20
Dwayne Washington3206.70
Taysom Hill210.50
Teddy Bridgewater3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas12121281
Jared Cook44540
Taysom Hill22421
Alvin Kamara55230
Tre'Quan Smith11211
Latavius Murray23200
Ted Ginn11130
Josh Hill1151
Deonte Harty1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.56