Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.145
- 43.3%Success rate48.8%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.047EPA / rush+0.039
- 9.0%Explosive rate11.0%
- +3.26CPOE+3.77
- 37.5%Third-down rate46.0%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.11Points / drive2.73
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–2 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. BUF are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 13/27 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 19 | 68 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Darius Cooper | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/35 | 262 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 6 | 101 | 0 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.57