2025 · Week 17

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

13·12

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 38°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBills
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.145
  • 43.3%Success rate48.8%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.230
  • -0.047EPA / rush+0.039
  • 9.0%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +3.26CPOE+3.77
  • 37.5%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.73
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–2 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. BUF are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W12BUF @ PHI34–37PHI
2019 · W8PHI @ BUF31–13PHI
2015 · W14BUF @ PHI20–23PHI
2011 · W5PHI @ BUF24–31BUF
2007 · W17BUF @ PHI9–17PHI
2003 · W4PHI @ BUF23–13PHI
1999 · W3PHI @ BUF0–26BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–BUF
PHIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:45926Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:38517Punt0–0
BUFQ1 5:56452Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 4:03745Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 0:35946Punt7–0
PHIQ2 10:571243Field goal10–0
BUFQ2 5:033-2Punt10–0
PHIQ2 2:49961Field goal13–0
BUFQ2 0:0800End of half13–0
BUFQ3 15:0039Punt13–0
PHIQ3 13:25513Punt13–0
BUFQ3 10:58828Punt13–0
PHIQ3 6:2830Punt13–0
BUFQ3 6:03941Turnover on downs13–0
PHIQ3 2:1632Punt13–0
BUFQ3 0:045-5Punt13–0
PHIQ4 12:4834Punt13–0
BUFQ4 11:021154Touchdown13–6
PHIQ4 5:113-2Punt13–6
BUFQ4 3:211383Touchdown13–12
PHIQ4 0:0500End of half13–12

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts13/2711010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley19683.60
Tank Bigsby273.50
Jalen Hurts351.70
Will Shipley221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown57680
DeVonta Smith25250
Dallas Goedert3681
Darius Cooper1140
Grant Calcaterra1130
Tank Bigsby1120
Jahan Dotson0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen23/3526200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook20743.70
Josh Allen7273.92
Ty Johnson5153.00
Ray Davis144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks461010
Tyrell Shavers23360
Khalil Shakir67350
Ty Johnson34330
Dawson Knox55300
Josh Palmer12120
Ray Davis11120
James Cook1430
Gabe Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.57