Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.044
- 40.7%Success rate42.7%
- +0.074EPA / dropback-0.008
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.97CPOE-0.86
- 38.1%Third-down rate39.1%
- 65.3%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.83Points / drive1.56
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–2 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 19/36 | 268 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 5 | 7 | 106 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 5 | 12 | 81 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 23/38 | 247 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Ryan Mathews | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 7 | 98 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 6 | 62 | 1 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Seyi Ajirotutu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.19