2015 · Week 14

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

20·23

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

48

Model margin

+1.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapEagles
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.044
  • 40.7%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback-0.008
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.105
  • 10.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.97CPOE-0.86
  • 38.1%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 65.3%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.56
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–2 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17PHI @ BUF13–12PHI
2023 · W12BUF @ PHI34–37PHI
2019 · W8PHI @ BUF31–13PHI
2011 · W5PHI @ BUF24–31BUF
2007 · W17BUF @ PHI9–17PHI
2003 · W4PHI @ BUF23–13PHI
1999 · W3PHI @ BUF0–26BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–PHI
BUFQ1 15:00312Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:302-8Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:43740Touchdown0–0
PHIQ1 10:24216Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 9:53480Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 8:1731Punt7–7
BUFQ1 6:51523Punt7–7
PHIQ1 4:2839Punt7–7
BUFQ1 3:12940Punt7–7
PHIQ2 12:4136Punt7–7
PHIQ2 11:36457Touchdown7–14
BUFQ2 10:38865Field goal10–14
PHIQ2 6:20620Punt10–14
BUFQ2 3:59829Punt10–14
PHIQ2 1:281053Field goal10–17
BUFQ2 0:0500End of half10–17
PHIQ3 15:001357Field goal10–20
BUFQ3 9:42863Field goal13–20
PHIQ3 5:1432Punt13–20
BUFQ3 4:04649Touchdown20–20
PHIQ3 0:46946Turnover20–20
BUFQ4 12:55723Punt20–20
PHIQ4 9:1835Punt20–20
BUFQ4 8:41318Punt20–20
BUFQ4 6:501-10Punt20–20
BUFQ4 6:06216Punt20–20
PHIQ4 5:25649Field goal20–23
BUFQ4 3:2646Punt20–23
PHIQ4 2:173-11Punt20–23
BUFQ4 1:4937Turnover20–23
PHIQ4 1:1600End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor19/3626811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy20743.70
Tyrod Taylor8536.60
Mike Gillislee3248.01
Sammy Watkins111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods571060
Sammy Watkins512811
LeSean McCoy47350
Chris Hogan25200
Chris Gragg12110
Charles Clay1290
Mike Gillislee1160

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford23/3824711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles7415.91
Ryan Mathews13382.90
DeMarco Murray11343.10
Sam Bradford331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz57980
Nelson Agholor36621
Riley Cooper36280
Josh Huff23280
Jordan Matthews35190
Darren Sproles2340
Ryan Mathews2240
DeMarco Murray2230
Brent Celek1210
Seyi Ajirotutu0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.19