Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.023
- 44.9%Success rate41.8%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.01CPOE-2.62
- 45.1%Third-down rate35.9%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 2.01Points / drive1.56
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–2 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. BUF are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 17/24 | 172 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 23 | 96 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 74 | 24.7 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/34 | 169 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Duke Williams | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81