2019 · Week 8

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

31·13

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 54°F · wind 23mph

Closing spread

BUF -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBills
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.023
  • 44.9%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.069EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.085
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.01CPOE-2.62
  • 45.1%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.56
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–2 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. BUF are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17PHI @ BUF13–12PHI
2023 · W12BUF @ PHI34–37PHI
2015 · W14BUF @ PHI20–23PHI
2011 · W5PHI @ BUF24–31BUF
2007 · W17BUF @ PHI9–17PHI
2003 · W4PHI @ BUF23–13PHI
1999 · W3PHI @ BUF0–26BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–BUF
BUFQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:51621Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:0939Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:13947Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 3:381056Touchdown3–7
PHIQ2 14:48936Punt3–7
BUFQ2 9:34735Punt3–7
PHIQ2 6:00620Punt3–7
BUFQ2 2:2734Turnover3–7
PHIQ2 1:53524Touchdown11–7
BUFQ2 0:25226Missed field goal11–7
PHIQ3 15:00267Touchdown17–7
BUFQ3 14:021185Touchdown17–13
PHIQ3 9:36763Touchdown24–13
BUFQ3 5:3836Punt24–13
BUFQ3 4:14614Turnover on downs24–13
PHIQ3 1:333-7Punt24–13
BUFQ4 14:5130Punt24–13
PHIQ4 14:291483Touchdown31–13
BUFQ4 6:123-2Punt31–13
PHIQ4 4:37723Turnover on downs31–13
BUFQ4 2:3846Turnover on downs31–13
PHIQ4 2:041-2Turnover on downs31–13
BUFQ4 0:33116End of half31–13

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz17/2417210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard23964.21
Miles Sanders37424.71
Carson Wentz8354.40
Nelson Agholor273.50
Boston Scott561.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery46640
Miles Sanders33440
Dallas Goedert35221
Zach Ertz24200
Jordan Howard12150
Nelson Agholor4470

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen16/3416920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen8455.60
Frank Gore9343.80
Devin Singletary3196.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown58540
Cole Beasley37411
Tyler Kroft24320
Devin Singletary46301
Lee Smith1160
Duke Williams1260
Patrick DiMarco0100
Robert Foster0100
Dawson Knox0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.81