Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
52.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.053EPA / play-0.000
- 47.0%Success rate44.6%
- +0.077EPA / dropback+0.012
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.023
- 12.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.41CPOE+0.64
- 42.0%Third-down rate30.9%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.91Points / drive1.56
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–2 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. BUF are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 26/40 | 315 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 6 | 90 | 15.0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 80 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Avant | 9 | 10 | 139 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/27 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 26 | 111 | 4.3 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.83