2011 · Week 5

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

24·31

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 74°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

52.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBills
  • +0.053EPA / play-0.000
  • 47.0%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.077EPA / dropback+0.012
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.023
  • 12.1%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.41CPOE+0.64
  • 42.0%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 54.9%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.56
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–2 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. BUF are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17PHI @ BUF13–12PHI
2023 · W12BUF @ PHI34–37PHI
2019 · W8PHI @ BUF31–13PHI
2015 · W14BUF @ PHI20–23PHI
2007 · W17BUF @ PHI9–17PHI
2003 · W4PHI @ BUF23–13PHI
1999 · W3PHI @ BUF0–26BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–BUF
PHIQ1 15:00749Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 11:43754Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 8:03727Turnover0–7
BUFQ1 4:30615Punt0–7
PHIQ1 1:30950Touchdown7–7
BUFQ2 12:42777Touchdown7–14
PHIQ2 9:1710Opp touchdown7–21
PHIQ2 9:0034Punt7–21
BUFQ2 7:2036Punt7–21
PHIQ2 4:54428Punt7–21
BUFQ2 3:14826Turnover7–21
PHIQ2 0:39422End of half7–21
BUFQ3 15:001080Touchdown7–28
PHIQ3 9:11580Touchdown14–28
BUFQ3 7:17422Punt14–28
PHIQ3 5:16235Turnover14–28
BUFQ3 4:59615Field goal14–31
PHIQ3 1:15480Touchdown21–31
BUFQ4 14:513-8Punt21–31
PHIQ4 13:32859Field goal24–31
BUFQ4 9:29638Punt24–31
PHIQ4 5:39855Turnover24–31
BUFQ4 1:4939End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick26/4031524

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick69015.00
LeSean McCoy11807.31
Dion Lewis284.00
DeSean Jackson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Avant9101390
DeSean Jackson57861
Jeremy Maclin68541
LeSean McCoy47270
Brent Celek1560
Clay Harbor1130

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/2719311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson261114.31
C.J. Spiller2136.50
Brad Smith4123.01
Ryan Fitzpatrick372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Jackson66850
Naaman Roosevelt57410
Steve Johnson45290
Donald Jones22250
David Nelson1261
Scott Chandler1140
C.J. Spiller2230
Ruvell Martin0100
Brad Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.83