1999 · Week 3

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Doug Pederson

0·26

Bills

Buffalo

QB Doug Flutie

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 74°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BUF -11.5

Total

38

Model margin

+5.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBills
  • -0.192EPA / play-0.010
  • 33.4%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.199EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.195
  • 6.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 31.2%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 46.7%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 0.90Points / drive1.59
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.098EPA / play allowed-0.138

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–2 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. BUF are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17PHI @ BUF13–12PHI
2023 · W12BUF @ PHI34–37PHI
2019 · W8PHI @ BUF31–13PHI
2015 · W14BUF @ PHI20–23PHI
2011 · W5PHI @ BUF24–31BUF
2007 · W17BUF @ PHI9–17PHI
2003 · W4PHI @ BUF23–13PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–BUF
PHIQ1 15:0061Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:34645Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 9:413-8Punt0–3
BUFQ1 7:34637Field goal0–6
PHIQ1 3:531-11Turnover0–6
BUFQ1 3:3433Field goal0–9
PHIQ1 1:27320—0–9
PHIQ200Punt0–9
PHIQ2 15:00512Punt0–9
BUFQ2 13:15844Turnover0–9
PHIQ2 10:1132Punt0–9
BUFQ2 8:3936Punt0–9
PHIQ2 7:04761Turnover0–9
BUFQ2 4:20543Touchdown0–16
PHIQ2 1:54433Missed field goal0–16
BUFQ2 1:05636Field goal0–19
BUFQ3724Punt0–19
PHIQ3 10:5039Punt0–19
BUFQ3 9:12860Touchdown0–26
PHIQ3 4:463-1Punt0–26
BUFQ3 3:16626Missed field goal0–26
PHIQ400Punt0–26
PHIQ4 15:0036Punt0–26
BUFQ4 13:4735Punt0–26
PHIQ4 11:43822Punt0–26
BUFQ4 8:06838Punt0–26
PHIQ4 3:37523Punt0–26
BUFQ4 2:06311End of half0–26

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Pederson14/2613700
Donovan McNabb6/113400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb11010.00
Doug Pederson166.00
Duce Staley1060.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Luther Broughton34520
Charles Johnson46450
Jed Weaver24220
Duce Staley47190
Torrance Small14120
Brian Finneran11110
Dameane Douglas1280
James Bostic4620
Dietrich Jells0300

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Flutie18/2617511
Rob Johnson1/21100
Alex Van Pelt1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith16644.01
Doug Flutie5326.40
Rob Johnson12525.00
Kevin R. Williams11313.00
Eric Moulds111.00
Alex Van Pelt1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Reed33410
Eric Moulds37370
Jay Riemersma22221
Kevin R. Williams23140
Kamil Loud12110
Peerless Price1390
Sheldon Jackson1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.42