Closing spread
BUF -11.5
Total
38
Model margin
+5.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play-0.010
- 33.4%Success rate40.3%
- -0.199EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.195
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- 31.2%Third-down rate41.4%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 0.90Points / drive1.59
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.098EPA / play allowed-0.138
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–2 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. BUF are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 14/26 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 6/11 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 10 | 6 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Broughton | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dameane Douglas | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| James Bostic | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 18/26 | 175 | 1 | 1 |
| Rob Johnson | 1/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Doug Flutie | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Reed | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Kamil Loud | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.42