Closing spread
PHI -9.5
Total
39
Model margin
+5.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.041
- 38.9%Success rate45.5%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.112EPA / rush+0.017
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.62CPOE-0.87
- 33.2%Third-down rate43.4%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.13Points / drive1.66
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–2 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 16/30 | 133 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 29/41 | 345 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.22