2007 · Week 17

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Trent Edwards

9·17

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -9.5

Total

39

Model margin

+5.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapEagles
  • -0.125EPA / play+0.041
  • 38.9%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.112EPA / rush+0.017
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.62CPOE-0.87
  • 33.2%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
  • 1.13Points / drive1.66
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–2 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17PHI @ BUF13–12PHI
2023 · W12BUF @ PHI34–37PHI
2019 · W8PHI @ BUF31–13PHI
2015 · W14BUF @ PHI20–23PHI
2011 · W5PHI @ BUF24–31BUF
2003 · W4PHI @ BUF23–13PHI
1999 · W3PHI @ BUF0–26BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–PHI
BUFQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:01612Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:0039Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:061369Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 1:0732Punt0–7
PHIQ2 15:00861Turnover0–7
BUFQ2 10:081467Field goal3–7
PHIQ2 1:571070Field goal3–10
BUFQ2 0:2027End of half3–10
PHIQ3 15:00416Punt3–10
BUFQ3 12:081155Field goal6–10
PHIQ3 5:52470Touchdown6–17
BUFQ3 3:42562Field goal9–17
PHIQ3 1:3333Turnover9–17
BUFQ3 0:0049Turnover on downs9–17
PHIQ4 13:39418Punt9–17
BUFQ4 10:54819Punt9–17
PHIQ4 8:13617Punt9–17
BUFQ4 5:53515Punt9–17
PHIQ4 3:35755Punt9–17
BUFQ4 0:1017End of half9–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Edwards16/3013300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch221054.80
Trent Edwards3175.70
Fred Jackson5163.20

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb29/4134511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook7426.00
Correll Buckhalter9182.00
Reggie Brown294.50
Donovan McNabb100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

3.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.9%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.22