Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
49
Model margin
-0.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play+0.061
- 48.4%Success rate46.3%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.106
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.96CPOE+3.86
- 49.7%Third-down rate47.5%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.33Points / drive2.30
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–2 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 29/51 | 339 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 9 | 81 | 9.0 | 2 |
| James Cook | 16 | 43 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 6 | 12 | 105 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 11 | 74 | 1 |
| James Cook | 6 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/31 | 200 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 80 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 8 | 106 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 9 | 37 | 1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 29 | 1 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.78