2023 · Week 12

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

34·37

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

49

Model margin

-0.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapEagles
  • +0.097EPA / play+0.061
  • 48.4%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.106
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.007
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.96CPOE+3.86
  • 49.7%Third-down rate47.5%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 2.33Points / drive2.30
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–2 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17PHI @ BUF13–12PHI
2019 · W8PHI @ BUF31–13PHI
2015 · W14BUF @ PHI20–23PHI
2011 · W5PHI @ BUF24–31BUF
2007 · W17BUF @ PHI9–17PHI
2003 · W4PHI @ BUF23–13PHI
1999 · W3PHI @ BUF0–26BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–PHI
BUFQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:0830Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:331238Punt0–0
PHIQ1 6:371166Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 1:061145Field goal3–7
PHIQ2 11:2320Turnover3–7
BUFQ2 11:10539Touchdown10–7
PHIQ2 8:34414Punt10–7
BUFQ2 6:45636Punt10–7
PHIQ2 4:2035Punt10–7
BUFQ2 2:10864Missed field goal10–7
PHIQ2 1:24315Turnover10–7
BUFQ2 1:04646Touchdown17–7
PHIQ2 0:1200End of half17–7
PHIQ3 15:003-4Punt17–7
BUFQ3 13:29739Missed field goal17–7
PHIQ3 10:32662Touchdown17–14
BUFQ3 7:13970Touchdown24–14
PHIQ3 1:40775Touchdown24–21
BUFQ4 13:3722Turnover24–21
PHIQ4 12:46324Touchdown24–28
BUFQ4 11:0747Punt24–28
PHIQ4 8:5033Punt24–28
BUFQ4 7:061074Touchdown31–28
PHIQ4 1:52844Field goal31–31
BUFQ4 0:2000End of half31–31
BUFOT1138Field goal34–31
PHIOT975Touchdown34–37

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen29/5133921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen9819.02
James Cook16432.70
Latavius Murray9303.30
Ty Johnson6193.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gabe Davis6121051
Stefon Diggs611741
James Cook67570
Khalil Shakir35470
Dalton Kincaid56380
Latavius Murray35180
Trent Sherfield0300

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts18/3120031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift14805.70
Jalen Hurts14654.62
Kenny Gainwell22613.00
Boston Scott2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith781061
A.J. Brown59371
Olamide Zaccheaus11291
Jack Stoll12140
Kenny Gainwell23100
D'Andre Swift1140
Julio Jones1300
Boston Scott0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.0%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.78