Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.117
- 43.4%Success rate39.7%
- +0.064EPA / dropback-0.140
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- 36.1%Third-down rate31.3%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.99Points / drive1.19
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.031EPA / play allowed-0.087
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–2 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.8 points. BUF are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:18 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 8:45 | 16 | 60 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q1 0:09 | 10 | 44 | Missed field goal | 10–0 |
| PHI | Q2 9:17 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q2 6:03 | 7 | 57 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| PHI | Q2 1:42 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 13–0 |
| PHI | Q3 13:20 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q3 12:04 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 13–0 |
| PHI | Q3 9:50 | 15 | 65 | Field goal | 16–0 |
| BUF | Q3 0:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 16–0 |
| PHI | Q4 14:43 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 16–0 |
| BUF | Q4 13:09 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 16–6 |
| PHI | Q4 9:12 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 16–6 |
| BUF | Q4 7:25 | 14 | 74 | Touchdown | 16–13 |
| PHI | Q4 2:49 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 23–13 |
| BUF | Q4 2:10 | 6 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 23–13 |
| PHI | Q4 1:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/29 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 11 | 96 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 27/43 | 296 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burns | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ken Simonton | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.95