Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bengalsedge mapFalcons
- +0.001EPA / play-0.358
- 47.6%Success rate36.7%
- -0.030EPA / dropback-0.638
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.113
- 11.1%Explosive rate10.0%
- +6.35CPOE-10.42
- 57.1%Third-down rate16.7%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.11Points / drive0.46
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 53.2 points. ATL are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.48
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.26