Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
51.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.087
- 50.4%Success rate42.9%
- +0.235EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.027
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.7%
- +9.08CPOE-7.31
- 53.9%Third-down rate35.0%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 2.60Points / drive1.72
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 53.2 points. ATL are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.82
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.40