Closing spread
NE -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.052
- 40.0%Success rate45.0%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.215
- -0.266EPA / rush-0.200
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- -1.28CPOE+7.12
- 36.3%Third-down rate40.8%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.96Points / drive2.06
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. NE are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.41