Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+6.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Packersedge mapPatriots
- -0.181EPA / play-0.092
- 38.2%Success rate40.8%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.438EPA / rush-0.451
- 13.2%Explosive rate1.4%
- -9.65CPOE+5.97
- 25.0%Third-down rate31.3%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.91Points / drive1.11
- 2.9%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. NE are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.47
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.45