Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ravensedge mapPanthers
- +0.071EPA / play+0.019
- 46.2%Success rate41.9%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.084
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.76CPOE-0.58
- 41.4%Third-down rate39.3%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 2.06Points / drive2.15
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. CAR are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.51