Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-15.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ravensedge mapPanthers
- +0.209EPA / play+0.130
- 46.9%Success rate47.1%
- +0.316EPA / dropback+0.242
- +0.101EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.9%Explosive rate11.8%
- +4.80CPOE+4.17
- 37.5%Third-down rate44.4%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 3.13Points / drive2.90
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. CAR are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-17.77
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-15.47