Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bengalsedge mapCommanders
- +0.001EPA / play+0.073
- 47.6%Success rate43.5%
- -0.030EPA / dropback+0.160
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.046
- 11.1%Explosive rate4.3%
- +6.35CPOE-3.44
- 57.1%Third-down rate33.3%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.11Points / drive1.99
- 1.6%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–1 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. WAS are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.02