Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bengalsedge mapCommanders
- +0.118EPA / play-0.005
- 50.4%Success rate41.2%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.123
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- +9.08CPOE+2.73
- 53.9%Third-down rate32.2%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 2.60Points / drive1.92
- 2.0%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–1 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. WAS are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.49