Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+1.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Saintsedge mapBengals
- +0.030EPA / play+0.001
- 44.3%Success rate47.6%
- +0.067EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.075EPA / rush+0.050
- 9.1%Explosive rate11.1%
- -1.21CPOE+6.35
- 47.1%Third-down rate57.1%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 2.20Points / drive2.11
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. CIN are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.51